TCW - Weekend Sports Guide October 1st-3rd

Billie Joe Armstrong, from Green Day fame, wrote a song called Wake Me Up When September Ends. Well It's time to wake up Billie Joe and you to America, for September is over and October has begun. The 10th month of the year is an exciting one for all sports fans. Major League Baseball finishes up the regular season this weekend and heads for postseason play. The NFL experiences weeks 4 through 8. College Football starts conference play. The NHL begins its regular season on the 7th, followed by the NBA on the 27th. If the world series ends in a sweep its the only month where all 4 major sports are playing. But without further ado, the TCW presents the weekend previews and predictions in the world of sports.

MLB
It the final weekend in baseball and there is little left to be decided. In the American League, all 4 teams have already clinched. Minnesota won the AL central, Texas won the AL West, and New York and Tampa Bay clinched playoff spots but are still battling for the AL East crown. Minnesota can do no worse than the #2 seed and Texas is locked into the #4 seed. After last night's games, Tampa Bay and New York are in a dead heat at 94-65. The Twins are a game back for the overall best record, but since both Tampa Bay and New York hold the tiebreaker, the Twins are essentially 2 games back of the best record with 3 to play. Therefore, let's look at the remaining games this weekend for New York and Tampa Bay in our pivotal AL Series.

Rays at Royals
The Royals already won game 1 and have won 3 of their last 4 and have a shot to catch Cleveland to stay out of the cellar in the AL Central. The Rays have the pitching though and a favorable offense versus the Royals. SERIES PREDICTION Rays 3-1

Yankees at Red Sox
The Yankees play their rivals again for the 2nd time in a week with home-field advantage in the first 2 rounds on the line. Boston has little to play for other than keeping the Yankees from hoisting a division title and avoiding watching a celebration occur on their home-field. Which would rub even more salt in their wounds. SERIES PREDICTION - Yankees 2-1

Over in the NL, 2 of the 4 teams (Philadelphia & Cincinnati) have punched their tickets with the last 2, San Francisco & Atlanta holding all the cards over the Padres. The Phillies have already secured the best record and number 1 seed in the National League. Cincinnati will likely be the 3rd seed but has a chance to overtake San Francisco for the 2nd seed. If you're going to watch baseball this weekend, stick to the National League where 2 pivotal series are taking place.

Phillies at Braves
First the Braves host Philadelphia in a possible NLCS preview series. The Braves have a 2 game lead on San Diego for the Wild card lead, 1 win in this series will probably be enough, but they'll want to take 2 of 3 to be sure and control their own destiny. The Phillies are in rest mode and will not be playing a full "A" squad. Look for the Braves to take advantage and send Bobby Cox to the postseason again in his last year as manager. SERIES PREDICTION Braves 2-1

San Diego at San Francisco
This is what October baseball is all about. In what will essentially be a playoff like series for the 2 Sans baseball teams, the Giants have a 3 game lead on the Padres with 3 games to go all against each other. You do the math, all the Giants need to do is avoid a sweep and they'll be poppin champagne in the NL West. The Padres are playing for a sweep and a chance at a 1 game playoff or even the wild card spot if the Braves slip at home. No rest for the weary here, the Padres will throw everything they got at the Giants. A win in game 1 will make things interesting, but the Giants have too much of an edge. For the sake of interesting baseball I hope the Padres win the first game and make it a series, a loss would make the final 2 games utterly meaningless. SERIES PREDICTION Giants 2-1

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
What a start to week 5 in college football last night as the Cowboys of Oklahoma State won a thriller against Texas A&M in Stillwater 38-35 to maintain their undefeated season. Dan Bailey's 40 yard field goal as time expired marked the first loss for the Aggies and an almost certain Top 25 ranking for the Cowboys next week.

TOP 25 KEY MATCHUPS
#7 Florida at #1 Alabama
The marquee matchup of the weekend. The Crimson Tide have already defeated 2 top 25 teams in their 4 games. Whereas the Gators have faced decent competition and won easily each time. But Alabama in Huntsville will be nothing like they've seen yet this year and for a Gators team that is 90th in passing yards and 48th in Rushing, they'll need a near perfect performance to beat the best, yep, I said the number 1 defense in the country. Alabama is allowing an FBS low 9.8 points per game. PREDICTION Alabama 24-10

#9 Stanford at #4 Oregon
1 word: Offense. You want to see fireworks this weekend, you might want to head over to Eugene, Oregon. That's where you'll find the #1 (Oregon) and #4 (Stanford) scoring teams in the country at 57.8 and 48 points per game respectively. Part of that has to be the competition these 2 teams have faced. The two teams have combined to beat New Mexico State, Portland State (Oregon) and San Jose State (Stanford) 193-17. Although, Stanford did shut out UCLA 35-0, a team that has upset to Top 25 teams in Houston and Texas the following weeks. Oregon's LaMichael James will take his 7.8 yards per rush and be a huge factor in this game, coupled with the 4th best defense in the FBS, Oregon should have the edge to take this game, but it should be an entertaining one non-the-less. PREDICTION Oregon 38-31

#21 Texas at #8 Oklahoma
One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, the Red River rivalry game (formerly Red River Shootout). This game is always huge from a rivalry standpoint, but also from a national ranking and BCS positioning stance. Since 1945 one or both of the two teams has been ranked among the top 25 teams in the nation coming into the game 60 out of 65 times. Texas leads the all-time series 59–40–5. The game is played in Dallas, which isn't to give Texas an edge, its because Dallas is about halfway between Austin and Norman. The Longhorns are coming off a shocking loss at home vs UCLA. Not a good tune-up against an Oklahoma team that runs the ball very well behind DeMarco Murray, who leads the country in rushing attempts, not too mention passes very well and has the 3rd best receiver in the country in Ryan Broyles. PREDICTION Oklahoma 28-21

#11 Wisconsin at #24 Michigan State
A great test for both teams that check in undefeated after playing mostly inferior competition. A common occurrence with most Big Ten teams who schedule cupcakes to build confidence towards the conference season as the Badgers and Spartans have done with the likes of San Jose State, Austin Peay (WISC), Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, and Northern Colorado (MSU). Both teams boast top 25 offenses and top 30 defenses, so this should be a typical hard nose fought Big Ten game. Michigan State's head coach Mark D'antonio returns after suffering a mild heart attack earlier in the year, will the Spartans use this game as inspiration and possibly a catapult into the top 20 or 15 in the nation? We will see. PREDICTION Michigan State 24-17

#22 Penn State at #17 Iowa
Although both teams are 3-1 and in the top 25 starting week 5, each team is still looking for that signature win. Of the 6 combined wins between the two, the highest profile win for either team would be Penn State's 22-13 win over Temple last week. Needless to say, whoever wins this game, gets their first signature win, and the other one drops out of the top 25. Both teams sport top 10 defenses, but its Iowa who has the edge on offense behind quarterback Ricky Stanzi's 3rd best passer rating in the country. Look for Iowa to make a statement and show people why they we're right to give this team a top 10 pre-season ranking. PREDICTION Iowa 28-20

OTHER UNDEFEATED GAME
#19 Michigan at Indiana
Yes, that's right, Indiana a) has a football team, and b) is undefeated. However, they probably aren't to keen on letting you know who they've beaten. The Hoosiers are happy at 3-0 after beating heavy hitters (sarcasm) Towson, Western Kentucky, and Akron. Towson is 1-3 in the FCS, Western Kentucky has the longest FBS losing streak, currently at 24 straight losses, and Akron is also winless, narrowly losing to Bowling Green in overtime. So of their 3 victories, the only team their victim's have beaten is Towson's upset of Coastal Carolina 47-45 in 5 OT's. Michigan hasn't faced a top 25 team, but they've at least gone against D1 talent. Add on the fact that they have the best Rusher in the country in Denard Robinson, Michigan walks into this game heavily favored. PREDICTION Michigan 41-24

UPSET SPECIAL
#16 Miami at Clemson
The best chance for an unranked team to upset a top 25 team may be in Clemson, SC, where the Tigers of Clemson host the Tigers of Auburn. Clemson doesn't have a lot to stand on in their 2 wins over North Texas and Presbyterian, but their loss against Auburn is actually the highlight of their season so far. They nearly pulled off the upset on the road last week versus Auburn's Tigers, eventually losing 27-24 in OT. That game should give Clemson the confidence going into this weekend's game versus Miami who coincidentally is also ranked 16th this week. PREDICTION Clemson 27-24 in OT (flip the switch!)

GOPHER WATCH
Northwestern at Minnesota
It's homecoming in Minneapolis for the boys in Maroon and Gold. So people will be smiling and happy right up until the 2nd quarter, when Northwestern and the best passer rating quarterback in the country, Dan Persa, should start to slip away from a team that has loss 3 straight at home, 2 of which to South Dakota and Northern Illinois. Even putrid offenses have walked all over the Gophers this year, who are allowing 31 points per game. The Wildcats haven't beaten anyone impressive, their signature win to date is against Central Michigan, but even a win at Minnesota shouldn't be considered a signature win this year. Northwestern will have to look for that key victory some other week. PREDICTION Northwestern 35-24

NFL
I know its early, but its week 4 in the NFL and only 2 games feature teams that have both have winning record. Also week 4 marks the first BYE week of the year for teams, which means fantasy football owners have to start making tough decisions about who to start. Plus its time for the Griswolds (my fantasy team) at 1-2 to make a move to contenders instead of pretenders.

Ravens at Steelers
The best Sunday matchup pits the 2-1 Ravens and the surprisingly undefeated Steelers. I say surprisingly because Pittsburgh has been without their Pro Bowl Quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger for the start of the year, suspended from assault allegations for which he was eventually cleared. The Ravens are often associated with great defenses, however in this game, the role's are reversed. The Steelers the 3rd best defense against the run to Baltimore's 22nd. The keys to winning for the Steelers lie in their defense and their running game which also ranks 3rd in the NFL. If Baltimore can shut down or slow the Steelers run, they'll be forced to pass, which will favor the Ravens because the Steelers are dead last in the league in the passing game and the Ravens sport the league's best pass defense. PREDICTION Ravens 21-17

Patriots at Dolphins (Monday Night)
If you can't get enough sports this weekend, consider Monday night your bonus match-up where the Dolphins and Patriots hook up in a battle of 2-1 teams that will battle for the AFC East crown. The Patriots will bring the offense (top 10 in both passing and rushing), and the Dolphins will provide the defense (Top 10 pass defense). The difference might take place on the ground, where New England's running back by committee (Green-Ellis, Taylor, and Faulk) offers a lot of options and keeps defenses on their toes, and could wreak havoc on a defense that's only 19th against the run. However the Dolphins can look to the passing game, which has talented wideout Brandon Marshall to throw to. If Henne and Marshall get in sync, they can do damage against a Patriots defense that's 7th worst against the pass. PREDICTION Dolphins 28-24

GOLF
Lastly, the Ryder Cup has just started and if you want to whet your fancy watching some golf this is a great opportunity to see the best before the season comes to a close. The Ryder Cup stages the best Americans versus the best European Players in the world every 2 years, alternating "home" courses. This year, the Europeans are at home in Wales and will try to take down the defending champion Americans. The Ryder cup is a 3 day event that uses the following format:
Day 1 (Friday) — 4 four-ball (better ball) matches in a morning session and 4 foursome (alternate shot) matches in an afternoon session
Day 2 (Saturday) — 4 four-ball matches in a morning session and 4 foursome matches in an afternoon session
Day 3 (Sunday) — 12 singles matches.

Tiger Woods is obviously the biggest name and still the best player in the world, however if you really follow golf, every matchup is considered all-star worthy and should provide for some entertainment on the links and your tube this weekend.

Well that's the long of it I guess. I hope you enjoyed the read and enjoy watching some exciting matchups this weekend.

Until then, remember to always signal your lane change.

bsv
the courtesy wave

Weekend Sports Couch Guide

Welcome to Friday's sports previews & predictions edition. The Courtesy Wave takes a look at the upcoming weekend sports games, the must-see match ups, and the Minnesota sports landscape.



MLB
The regular season is winding down and we are entering the next to last weekend of the season before the Playoffs begin. It could be the dullest 2 weeks of baseball in the American league, since all 4 spots are basically claimed save for an apocalyptic collapse. In fact only 2 teams outside of Minnesota, New York, Tampa Bay, and Texas are not mathematically eliminated, the A's and Angels, but each of those teams have a less than 1% chance of making the postseason. There are 2 races left to be decided in the AL although. New York and Tampa Bay are battling it out for the AL East division, with the loser still going to the playoffs where anything can happen. And home-field advantage throughout the ALCS is still up for grabs between Minnesota and the 2 AL East teams. Important yes, but you have to get there first to have home field advantage in the ALCS.

So we look to the National League to provide some do or die games the rest of the way to keep things exciting. The NL east race is over, Philadelphia has that in the bag, damn. The NL Central race is over, Cincinnati, a perennial loser has outdistanced themselves from St. Louis, damn. But alas, we finally have a race or 2 and it involves the NL West and subsequent Wild Card race between the loser of the NL West & the Atlanta Braves. San Diego, at one point in August was on cruise control and punching their ticket into postseason seemed a foregone conclusion. One 10 game losing streak poured water on the flames of that dream. Now the Padres are actually a half game behind the San Francisco Giants AND the Atlanta Braves for the final 2 playoff positions. There is one more team fighting for a playoff spot and they come out of the West too, the Colorado Rockies. At 3.5 back of each the division and wild card, the Rockies still have a chance, but a lot of factors need to come into play and their recent 4 game losing streak certainly hasn't helped.

Key MLB weekend match ups:
Twins at Tigers - As the newest best team in Baseball, the Twins will try to keep the peddle down and hold on to that top spot, securing home field throughout the AL playoffs. SERIES PREDICTION Twins 2-1
Yankees at Red Sox - At this time of the year, these 2 teams would normally garner national headlines and prime time TV spots, however with the Red Sox all but out, their story line turns to spoilers, an unfamiliar and unfavorable role. And with a division title and best record on the line, you can best bet that the Yankees want these game more. SERIES PREDICTION - Yankees 2-1
Seattle at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay gets the best match up scenario of the weekend, hosting a futile Mariners team that is playing triple A players and evaluating talent. The Rays, still a half game back of the AL East and dying to play the first round at home, will be heavily favored, and should sweep the Mariners out of town. SERIES PREDICTION - Rays 3-0

Giants at Rockies - Easily the biggest match up of the weekend between two teams that are in a dog race for the playoffs. The Rockies have the edge at home in front of their fans, coming off a 2-4 road trip, a little Coors Field action might be just what they need. A sweep puts Colorado in the thick of it, 2 out of three keeps them alive, a Giants sweep would end the Rockies hopes. SERIES PREDICTION - Giants 2-1

Reds at Padres - San Diego gets to play at home this weekend, but against the surprisingly good Cincinnati Reds. They might be catching them at a good time though, the Reds have the Central all but locked up save for a miracle by St. Louis, and at 6 games behind the Phillies, the best record in the NL is out of reach. Look for the Reds to rest a lot of their starters and for the Padres to pounce. SERIES PREDICTION - Padres 2-1

Braves at Nationals - Lastly the Braves are holding down the wild card trying to fight off the NL West. They take on a Nationals team that has the 3rd worst record in the NL. The Nationals (unfortunately) and Braves are in familiar spots. However, the Braves have lost their last 3, where the Nationals have won their last 3. Despite that, the honus is on Atlanta and Washington will try to spoil their dreams. SERIES PREDICTION - Braves 2-1

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
It's week 4 of the college football season, which means its generally the last non-conference weekend of football. This is the time for the big programs to get their last shot at crushing inferior competition and on the flip side, giving lower D-1 programs a shot at proving their worth against perceived superior talent. It's also a time for the super powers to get their cracks at other elite programs and provide fodder for which teams and conferences are more superior.

Top 25 Match ups
Alabama (1) at Arkansas (10) - Both teams are from the SEC and undefeated at 3-0. Alabama hasn't had a problem yet and boasts last year's Heisman winner. The Hogs narrowly defeated Georgia last week and will be charged up at home to beat the #1 team in the land. PREDICTION - Arkansas 24-21
Oregon State (24) at Boise State (3) - America's favorite underdog team, playing their home games on that weird blue turf, Boise State may be the 3rd ranked team in the country, but their high ranking will only hold up in an undefeated season. Not only do they have to win every game to get into a BCS, they have to do so convincingly. The Broncos are America's hope to bust the BCS system this year and make way for a true national playoff that would determine a clear national champion. The Beavers may hold a top 25 ranking, but their numbers don't hold a candle to Boise State who despite playing in the WAC, plays superior talent and beats them too. PREDICTION - Boise State 45-21
South Carolina (12) at Auburn (17) - Another SEC game pitting undefeated teams at 3-0. The Tigers are an extremely tough team to beat at home, and despite the lower ranking by an upstart Gamecocks team, an Auburn loss would come as a surprise to many. PREDICTION - Auburn 28-21
West Virginia (22) at LSU (18) - SEC vs Big East powerhouses clash in the Bayou. It could be an offensive struggle on both sides of the ball as each team comes into this weekend with a top 10 ranked defense. Giving the home edge to LSU. PREDICTION - LSU 21-17

Other Undefeated Game
Kentucky at Florida (9) - The SEC is in full swing this week with several good match ups, another one to keep an eye on is this one where Kentucky has been beating up on inferior competition and Florida has toughed out 3 wins against fairly decent opponents. Gainesville is a wild place to go into and opposing teams usually head home disappointed. Kentucky has scored the 11th most points in college football so far this season and will have to continue that trend to pull off the upset. PREDICTION Florida 35-31

Upset Special
Temple at Penn State (23) - Keep an eye on this game as undefeated Temple goes into Happy Valley to take on a Penn State team still trying to find their identity. Temple sports 3 wins against quality competition and Penn State has 2 easy victories and a bad loss to Alabama (albeit the number 1 team in the country). Plus a chance to beat an in-state adds a little flavor and possible recruiting advantages for teams separated by a 3.5 hr drive. PREDICTION - Temple 38-35

GOPHERS WATCH
Northern Illinois at Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are coming off 2 tough home losses in a row. The first, an ugly and utterly embarrassing loss to FBS (formerly Division 1AA) South Dakota, and a tough gut check loss to USC after a brief 3rd quarter lead. To put it blatantly, a loss to UNI for the Gophers would decimate this team. It can be argued that South Dakota is a better football team than UNI, with the Huskies only win coming against North Dakota this year, combined with a horrid offense that isn't even in the top 100. The Gophers need to show why they belong in the Big Ten and use this game to get some confidence back before what will be a grueling Big Ten season, having 5 of their next 8 games against Top 25 teams. PREDICTION - Minnesota 35-21

NFL
It's week 3 for the NFL and already its panic time for a couple teams. Mainly the Cowboys and Vikings.
Cowboys at Texans - Dallas has been really flat in their first 2 losses to 2 teams that are playing better than expected, the Redskins and Bears. The Cowboys will stay in state this weekend, but not at home as they travel to Houston to face the suddenly best team in Texas, Houston. The two Texas teams have no problem tossing the ball, both teams are in the top 10 in passing yards, but its the rushing game that polarizes the two teams. The Texans have the top rushing offense in the league at 157.5 yards/game, whereas the Cowboys are 28th with just 69.5. PREDICTION - Texans 31-28

Lions at Vikings - Fresh off their devastating NFC Championship loss, the Vikings were primed to be one of the favorites this year, bringing back their elderly, but still Hall of Fame Quarterback, Brett Favre and having nearly everyone back from the squad last year that went 12-4 and who's offense was eclectic. The results so far have been complete opposite of any one's predictions. After a week 1 loss to the Super Bowl Champion Saints, a game many were not surprised or concerned by. A home loss to the Miami Dolphins, an underrated team, but a team that should have been beat at home by the Vikings, has created ulcers for many Vikings fans, players, and coaches. Minnesota gets Detroit at home in what should be a perfect remedy to turn the goose egg into 1 in the win column. The Lions are probably not a playoff ready team, but they should no longer be taken lightly with an emerging quarterback in Matthew Stafford, a budding star running back, Javid Best, and a defensive lineman that puts the fear of god into you in Ndamukong Suh. PREDICTION - Vikings 38-28


Hope you enjoyed Friday's read. Till next time...have a great weekend!

bsv
the courtesy wave