The Twins rotation will look very familiar in 2011 with all 5 players returning from 2011, the first 4 have been promised spots from Gardenhire. The last spot is an ongoing battle between two experienced career Twins. Let's look into how all 6 are doing this spring.
ACE - FRANCISCO LIRIANO
Spring Stats - 0-1, 5.59 ERA, 9.2 IP, 0 HR, 10 K's.
Until last Friday, Liriano's spring could have been described as shaky at best. But his 7 strikeouts in 5 innings performance has given Twins fans the faith we needed. Liriano is coming off his best post-surgery year. No one expects him to return to his 2006 pre-surgery form, but he's shown signs that he will not succumb to the fate of many Tommy John surgery recipients, a busted career. He was, after all, the Comeback Player of the Year in 2010. He can look down the bench at Jim Thome and see what hard work and perseverance can do coming off a serious surgery, Thome won the same award in 2006.
2ND STARTER - CARL PAVANO
Spring Stats - 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 7 K's.
If not for Liriano and his dominating stuff, Carl Pavano would be the team's ace. But he's more of a control pitcher, a la Brad Radke,
but with a slightly quicker fastball. After sitting on offers from other teams, Pavano returns to the Twins for his 3rd year (2nd full), which has made his fans very happy. Pavano's has created a cult following in the upper midwest with his patented mustache. After a slow 2010 start, Pavano grew out a Super Mario'esque 'stache and his luck seemed to turn around. He finished the season 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, his 2nd best big league season. Like Liriano, Pavano was troubled with injuries during what was supposed to be the prime of his career. He'll likely be remembered that way, but is trying his best in the twilight of his career to put make a mark and establish himself as the elite pitcher everyone thought he would be. His perfect spring has Twins fans salivating for what could be in store for 2011. 3RD STARTER - BRIAN DUENSING
Spring Stats - 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 12.2 IP, 0 HR, 10 K's.
Sans playoffs, Brian Duensing has yet to disappoint Twins fans. Duensing is a bullpen to starter success story that so many relievers seek and yet so few succeed. Duensing is an oppportunist,
taking full advantage of the situations that have presented themselves, mainly taking over for injured players. He came up in 2009 and was nearly flawless out of the bullpen and when injuries opened up a spot in the rotation, Duensing filled it remarkably for a newbie. However, despite starting game 1 of the playoffs that year (because of game 163), he was back to the bullpen after all 5 spots were sewed up. It didn't take long to realize Duensing belonged in the rotation. Another injury opened up an opportunity and Duensing seized it, posting a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA and 78 strikeouts. This will be his first year starting right out of the gate, from which high expectations will be had. If anyone can handle it, Duensing has proven he's up to the challenge. 4TH STARTER - NICK BLACKBURN
Spring Stats - 2-1, 2.81 ERA, 16 IP, 3 HR, 6 K's.
Blackburn has been solid this spring and he's going to need to be solid in the regular season if he's to hold on to this spot.
After struggling in the bullpen coming up for a cup of coffee in 2007, the Twins moved him to the starting rotation in 2008 where he had a solid rookie campaign, going 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA. His 2009 was neither better nor worse, it was deja vu. Blackburn again went 11-11, had a 4.03 ERA, gave up just 2 more homeruns, 2 more walks and had 2 more strikeouts. It was eerily bizarre. Unfortunately, Blackburn took a step backwards last year, although posting a similar record at 10-12, he had career lows in IP and Strikeouts. The Twins patience on Blackburn is growing thin, another mediocre season is not what this team is looking for. If he's headed for another 10-11 win season, he'll likely be headed for another team. 5TH STARTER - SCOTT BAKER or KEVIN SLOWEY
Spring Stats
Baker - 1-3, 2.84 ERA, 12.2 IP, 1 HR, 11 K's.
Slowey - 1-0, 2.25 ERA, 12 IP, 1 HR, 6 K's.
That leaves Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. The winner gets the 5th spot, the loser gets the bullpen, or maybe the trading block.
Gardy hasn't given the nod to either and in the press he has stated that it could come down to the final days. Both starters have looked good enough this spring to be in the rotation. Baker is the more veteran of the two and was at one point considered the team's #1 or #2 starter, but health and inconsistency plagued Baker in 2010, while the other starters have stepped up their games. Baker is only 1-3 this spring, but more importantly he has a 2.84 ERA and 11 strikeouts in nearly 13 innings. This will be his 7th season as a Twin and with a career 4.32 ERA we can't expect anything stellar from Baker. But he has thrown 170 plus innings with a 140 plus strikeouts the last 3 years and with a career 55-42 mark Baker's proven that he's still a winner when it comes down to it. Still it might be put up or ship out time for Baker as a Minnesota Twin.Slowey isn't make Gardenhire's decision easy.
But then again, that's a good problem to have, after all we want to see both Baker and Slowey succeed and regardless of who wins the spot, there's a good chance we'll see both as a 6 month season almost never goes as planned. Slowey really strengthened his case last Monday with 4 innings of shutout baseball against the Marlins, retiring the first 6 batters. Slowey's 2010 stats are a little skewed, he finished 13-6 but had a 4.45 ERA and was often the benefactor of some healthy runs support. While Baker has 2 more years experience, their career stats are quite similar. Slowey holds a 39-21 career mark with a 4.41 ERA. And if there ever was an indication that springs stats don't hold a lot of water, you can look at Slowey's perfect 7-0 spring record with a 2.11 ERA. Neither Baker (2), nor Slowey (4) have thrown many games out of the bullpen, however either could be considered for the long reliever job, especially with the Twins lack of depth and experience in the bullpen. Furthermore, this all could be moot by mid-season if the Twins phenom prospect, Kyle Gibson makes a Matt Garza like ascension to the big leagues, a distinct possibility for a guy with a mid-90's fastball and previous mediocre seasons.
There are still 10 spring games left meaning Baker and Slowey should have at least 2 more times to impress the staff and GM Billy Smith. The battle in the bullpen is where there is room for great discussion and I will touch on that later this week.
Until next time, keep 'em honest and pitch inside.
Brock
TCW
