TCW - College Football Couch Guide 10/16

Watched Nothing But Trouble last night. It's an old movie starring Chevy Chase, Demi Moore, John Candy, and Dan Aykroyd, mostly off the radar film, hadn't seen it since I was a kid. I found out it actually is more of a comedy than a horror. The same thing happened when I watched Edward Scissorhands many years later and found out it too was actually a dark comedy. Akroyd's character in NBT, scared the bejesus out of me as a kid, but as an adult, he was hilarious. The movie is B quality, but still it was a treasure find on Encore last night, but I digress to today's topic. Since I highlighted the MLB playoffs yesterday, today's post will be on Saturday's College Football key matchups. Let's see who should come out on top and who might have nothing but trouble.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(all times CST)

RANKED MATCHUPS

#1 OHIO STATE (6-0) at #18 WISCONSIN (5-1) 6pm
The new number 1 in the land after Alabama's loss last weekend, Ohio State has a difficult matchup to try and avoid going 1 and done at the top of college football. The Buckeyes have steamrolled all 6 of their opponents so far this year, but other than a previously ranked Miami squad, Ohio State hasn't faced the toughest competition, until now. The sea of Red fans will be nothing new to the Red White and Silver Buckeyes, but the 11th ranked rushing offense, led by John Clay (8th in the nation) of Wisconsin will be. Throw in top 20 Quarterback Scott Tolzien, the Buckeyes will have to be on top of their game defensively. Good thing for them, they are already, having the 7th best defense in the country. Offensively they are in great shape too, coming in 6th in the nation in scoring behind all-star quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who boasts the 6th best QB rating in the country. This is a tough one to call, but I;ll go with the team who's been at number 1 before and should find a way to win. OHIO STATE 27-24

#7 AUBURN (6-0) vs #12 ARKANSAS (4-1) 2:30pm
Where one team runs, the other passes. A style of two very different offenses will be showcased in Auburn on Saturday. Arkansas will take to the air with pro-Quarterback-in-waiting Ryan Mallet. Mallet is 3rd in passing and 7th in QB rating in the country and has 2 go-to receivers in Joe Adams and the 6'3" Greg Childs. Auburn's strength is also in their quarterback, but where Mallet throws, Cam Newton runs. Newton is 12th in the nation in rushing (not the top QB though...we'll get to that). Auburn's 2nd leading rusher and their feature tailback, Michael Dyer is just 5'9" and a freshman, yet he's out rushing Arkansas's best runner by 187 yards. Newton doesn't throw much, but he is efficient, having the 2nd highest QB rating in the country at 181. If they trade points on the pass/rush game, then which defense will step up to make the difference. Auburn has allowed 24 or more points in 4 of their 6 games, including 34 last week to reeling Kentucky. Arkansas has not allowed more than 24 points in ANY of their games this year. Their only loss came to then #1 Alabama, losing late in that game. Arkansas needs this game badly to make a statement and stay in the SEC race. Auburn could be ready for a letdown. Arkansas scores quicker on the pass and stops Newton. ARKANSAS 31-24

RIVALRY GAMES
#5 NEBRASKA (5-0) vs TEXAS (3-2) 2:30pm
111 out of 120. That's Nebraska's ranking in the passing game. That's right, the 5th ranked Cornhuskers have thrown for less yards than Akron, Ohio, Temple, Tulane, Florida International...I could go on all day. So they can't get it down through the air, they dominate in the running game as you probably guessed. The Cornhuskers are 2nd in the nation in rushing at 337.6 yards per game, trailing only, ironically, Air Force. Like Auburn above, Nebraska is led by there fleet of foot quarterback, Taylor Martinez, who comes in 6th in the country in rushing (yet still does not lead all quarterbacks in rushing...just wait, we'll get there). Texas is coming off a bye week after a tough loss to their biggest rival Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout/Rivalry. They are an average team by most standards, not a typical Longhorns squad that usually boasts multiple NFL superstar talents. They've failed to break the top 50 in passing and rushing, and could use a signature victory to bring them back into the top 25 discussion. Nebraska needs this game more however, they're top 5 ranking has been scrutinized with a soft schedule, owning victories over Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, and a non-impressive win over South Dakota State, the Cornhuskers need to prove their top 5 ranking is legit. NEBRASKA 42-24

#8 ALABAMA (5-1) vs MISSISSIPPI (3-2) 8pm
How will the Crimson Tide react after losing their first game since 2008 last week at South Carolina. If your the red and white, you want to come home and face a team with a weak defense; which is just the recipe they have in this game against Ole Miss. The Rebels are in the headlines this week, not for their play, but for their new mascot change to the Rebel Black Bear (who's actually brown), their first change since abolishing the original old Southern Plantation owner mascot/logo in 2002. The Rebels don't make any headlines on defense, having allowed a combined 121 points to Jacksonville State, Fresno State, and Kentucky. If Alabama's Julio Jones is healthy, look for Greg McElroy to light him up early and often. Even if he's not ready, this should be a bounce back game for Alabama, a team that's faced 4 ranked opponents already. ALABAMA 35-28


#20 OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) at TEXAS TECH (3-2) 2:30pm
If you're looking for a place to watch good fireworks this weekend, you might want to steer your remote or drive on over to Lubbock, Texas and watch these to gong show offenses go at it. The Cowboys of OK State have lit up opponents through a 3 headed monster of an offense. Quarterback Brandon Weeden ranks 11th in the country in passer rating, Running back Kendall Hunter is the 7th best rusher, and Justin Blackmon is 3nd in yards receiving and 4th in scoring. And even if the Cowboys can't reach the end zone, they have super kicker Dan Bailey, who's 4th in the nation in field goals made and a perfect 6-6 from 40 plus. Texas Tech can toss the oblong ball well too though, their QB, Taylor Potts has averaged 330 yards per game himself, but Texas Tech has been giving up points at will, 38 in the past 2 weeks to average at best Iowa State and Baylor each. They'll need a home cooking in this one to slow down and upset the Cowboys. OKLAHOMA STATE 48-35

CLOSEST BUS RIDE GAME
HOUSTON (3-2) at RICE (1-5) 2:30pm
Cougar fans won't have to go far to see their team play on the road tomorrow. In fact, toss the keys aside and skip the bus, its only 4 miles from one campus to another. I don't have a ton to say about this matchup other than the team's close proximity, my guess is if you're an alumni or a resident of Houston you would take interest, but that's about it. Houston came in this year with high hopes after a good season last year, but have only beat relative competition and failed in losses to UCLA and Mississippi State. The Owls 1 win came against North Texas 32-31 in a pillow fight. They will probably step up in this cross-town rivalry but only for the first half. HOUSTON 35-17

UPSET SPECIAL

#15 IOWA (4-1) at MICHIGAN (5-1) 2:30pm
When you're 5-1, playing at home in front of 100K plus fans, and have all-world quarterback Denard Robinson at your disposal, its hard to imagine that you'd be the underdog. But the AP has Iowa ranked and Michigan without a number beside it, so the favored team will be the black and gold Hawkeyes from Iowa. The biggest difference in why Iowa is ranked and Michigan isn't is probably from the Hawkeyes top 25 defeat of Penn State and the Wolverines top 25 loss to Michigan State. Otherwise these teams have beat up bad opponents in their victories. Back to that all-world talented Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson, who leads the nation in rushing (unbelievable) and has the 12th highest passer rating (164.1). They'll need all the offense they can muster against the nation's TOP defense in Iowa, only allowing 10.4 point/game. Look for Michigan to bounce back this week and beat behind the strength of Robinson, who will be Iowa's toughest test this year. MICHIGAN 24-14

GOPHER WATCH
MINNESOTA (1-5) at PURDUE (3-2) 11am
If you absolutely have to watch and have nothing better to do on a cool fall day, then I suppose you can tune into this one if you get the Big Ten Network. I shouldn't be this hard on the Gophers, they are trying despite having an inept and still unproven coach 3 years into the Brewster project. The Gophers might just have a squeaker of a chance against a Purdue team with a questionable winning record. The Boilermakers 3 victories come against Western Illinois, Ball State, and Northwestern. The last, actually was a good road win against a then undefeated Northwestern team who has one of the best QB's in the Big Ten. If the Gophers O Line can keep DE Ryan Kerrigan (5.5 sacks) off of Weber, he might be able to get the ball to Marquis Gray, they're best weapon. But the Gophers have showed little in the ability to stop even modest offenses. Purdue is a decent running team and if the Gophers can't stop the run, they won't win the game. PURDUE 24-21

Well those are my Saturday picks, there's some more good matchups if your interested, USC/Cal, Illinois/Michigan State, Nevada/Hawaii, Missouri/Texas A&M, and Mississippi State/Florida should also tickle your fancy.

That's it for now, put your feet up and enjoy the weekend. Until next time, remember to close the shower curtain after use.

bsv
the courtesy wave