Weekend Sports Guide Halloween edition

If you haven't got your costume yet for this weekend, then you're way behind the 8 ball. Halloween weekend is upon us and what was once a predominately kids holliday, has turned into a billion dollar adult consumer binge weekend. According to a couple surveys, the Average American spends $56-$70 on Halloween related things. Well if you want to shutter yourself in the rest of the weekend and save some dough. You can catch a few exciting games from this weekend's edition of the TCW Weekend Sports Guide.



MLB
Games 1 and 2 are in the books and its all Giants so far as San Francisco has claimed a 2-0 lead in the best of 7 series. The National League finally won an all star game and gave the Giants the advantage by opening up at home. All was thought to be lost on that advantage when Cliff Lee took the mound for the Rangers. But the dominant and nearly flawless postseason Lee didn't show up for the World Series and the Giants capitalized taking game 1. Then following the momentum and success of Lincecum, Matt Cain turned in a dazzling game 2 performance, shutting out Texas in an eventual 7-0 route. The Giants can relax a little as they head to Arlington.

WORLD SERIES GAME 3 - LEWIS (TEX) vs. SANCHEZ (SF)
If you're a casual fan, I will understand if you've never heard of Colby Lewis, but if you've been following the postseason, you should definately know who the other C.L. from Texas is. Lewis is having a remarkable postseason, dominating the competition with a 2-0 mark and a 1.45 ERA. Not unprecedented, but utterly shocking coming from a journeyman pitcher who spent the last 2 years in Japan. A 12-13 mark on the season and career 24-28 W/L record, there was no reason to think that Colby Lewis would be a big advantage for Texas, but here we are. He's starting game 3 in the most important game of the series. He pitched them into the World Series, not he has to keep them in it. He's got a tough opponent to do so though in Jonathon Sanchez, a power pitcher who has racked up 24 strikeouts ins 15 plus innings this postseason. He throws a lot of pitches though and tends to walk a lot too. If the Rangers are patient, they can get to Sanchez and knock him out by the 5th. That's going to be tough though, the Rangers bats have been held silent and they are going to come out swinging to prove why they are considered the better team offensively in this matchup.
RANGERS take game 3 and make it an interesting series.


WORLD SERIES GAME 4 - HUNTER (TEX) vs BUMGARNER (SF)
The game 4 starters have been announced as Tommy Hunter versus Madison Bumgarner. However, this has to be listed with caution. If the Rangers win game 3, then the formula will stick and Hunter will start. If they lose game 3, look for the Rangers to start Cliff Lee instead as deperation mode will set in. This would still line up Lee for a Game 7 start if possible. For now, we'll discuss the 2 scheduled starters. 45 years. Thats the collective age of Bumgarner (21) and Hunter (24). Most guys that age are still partying in college or living with their parents. These guys are starting game 4 of the World Series. Hunter is older, but has not pitched in the postseason as much as Bumgarner. He had a decent 13-4 year, but doesn't have dominating stuff and relies heavily on his defense behind him. Bumgarner, the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft has raw talent and a blazing fastball. However, he's never been on a stage this huge before and at 21 its hard to fathom how he'll be able to control his emotions. Look for Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz, and Young to take charge offensively in games that could be high scoring.
RANGERS take game 4 and even up the series.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Last night saw another top 25 defeat by an unranked opponent as North Carolina State took advantage of a late fumble to upset 16th ranked Florida State. Which brings me to my next point. Predicting outcomes in College Football is easier said than done! After going 7-1 a couple weeks ago, I've gone 10-13 since, which has not only humbled me, but made me search more in depth on a team's potential. We'll see how I do this week.

TOP 25 FACE OFFS
5 MICHIGAN STATE (8-0) at 18 IOWA (5-2) 2:30p (CST)
The Spartans are in uncharted waters. The last time Michigan State was undefeated this late in the season was in 1966 when the team went 9-0-1 and claimed the National Championship under legendary coach and awesomely named Duffy Daugherty. Surviving a scare from Northwestern last week, Michigan State finds an even tougher road opponent this week in Iowa. Ricky Stanzi and company are coming off a heartbreaking last minute loss to Wisconsin and are in a must-win mode to fight for the Big Ten Championship and stay in Rose Bowl consideration. Iowa has 2 losses, but only 1 Conference loss, meaning taking down the Spartans would even up the standings in the loss column, along with Ohio State, and Purdue. They'll take that motivation with them and send the Spartans home disappointed.
IOWA 28-24

6 MISSOURI (7-0) at 14 NEBRASKA (6-1) 2:30p
The fight for the Victory Bell could not have a more polarizing QB matchup in college football than what will take place this saturday in Lincoln. Taylor Martinez is a run first, pass 2nd QB and Blaine Gabbert from Missouri is the exact opposite. Martinez is 10th in the nation in rushing at 870 yards, Gabbert has rushed for a total of 0 yards. Yep, that's not a typo, there he's netted exactly nothing this year. Gabbert may not be a household name, but his Tigers are ranked in the top 10, whereas the Huskers are not. (for now). Both teams are coming off upset victories over Oklahoma teams (OU for Missou and OK State for Nebraska). The Tigers are stout on defense which has kept their opponents at bay. But even if they shut down Martinez on the run, he may be showing tha he can throw too as evidenced in last week's 5 touchdown, 312 yard performance through the air. A home game for Nebraska, this will be a tough game for Missouri.
NEBRASKA takes it 31-24

RIVALRY GAMES
One of the joys of College is the traditions that each school is rooted in and a lot of those traditions take place on the battlefield between rival universities. Geography, history, symbolism, and former players/coaches all can take into consideration the traditions of a matchup. In many cases a Rivalry game is 2nd to a Conference championship, and it can provide entertainment in those years that desperately need it. Here are a few highlighted Rivalry Games this weekend.

PURDUE (4-3) at ILLINOIS (4-3) 11a - Purdue Cannon
This historic rivalry started back in the early 1900's when a group of Purdue students took a cannon to Champaign in anticipation of firing it to celebrate a Boiler victory. The Boilermakers won, but the Cannon was discovered before the Purdue students could start their booming celebration. The Cannon was moved to a farmhouse near Milford, Ill., where it survived a fire and gathered dust until it was suggested the cannon be used as a trophy in the football series between the two schools when the rivalry was resumed in 1943 after a 12-year lapse. Purdue holds the series edge 30-26-2, winning the last 5 and 8 out of the last 10. Both teams struggle on offense, especially in the passing game, where both teams are in the bottom 15 in the country. They'll rely on the ground game and defense. Where the Illini have the edge. Each team is coming off blowouts, Illinois over Indiana 43-13 and Purdue in a loss to Ohio State 49-0. The Fighting Illini are are home and will use last week as a momentum to grab back the Purdue Cannon after a 5 year hiatus.
ILLINOIS 27-21

FLORIDA (4-3) vs GEORGIA (4-4)in Jacksonville - Okefenokee Oar
Officially the game is titled the Florida vs Georgia Football Classic, but with all the tailgating and other events associated with it, it has also been named the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party". Although this series dates back to 1915, this is only the 2nd year a trophy has been presented to the winner. The Oar was crafted from a 1000-year-old cypress tree that once grew in the Okefenokee Swamp that straddles the Florida-Georgia border. This year's game will feature a rare sight, neither team is ranked at this time. But that will be a moot point as rankings don't mean a thing between these 2 teams. On the field the teams are going in opposite directions. The Bulldogs are gaining steam after starting the year 1-4, they've won their last 3 games, scoring 40 or more points each time against SEC mid-level competition. The Bulldogs have a chance to salvage there season and finish with a trip to a bowl game. They'll take a win over Florida over anything else however. The Gators are heading the other way after losing 3 straight, all to teams that are currently in the top 25 though. If they can right the ship, a win over Georgia sets up a big matchup against SEC West leader South Carolina, the winner of that game could be headed to the SEC championship game. Both teams have a lot at stake, and neither team has a definite advantage.
I'll take GEORGIA in a tough game in Jacksonville 27-24

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (2-4) at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (1-5) 3p - Shula Bowl
The Shula Bowl is named after former Miami Dolphins head coach Don Shula, to whom each school's first head coach has previous ties. FAU's head coach Howard Schnellenberger was an assistant of Shula in the 1970s and FIU's former head coach Don Strock was a player under Shula in the 1970s and 1980s. Consider this game as a best of the worst matchup. As FAU and FIU are consistently 2 of the worst college football teams in the country. The series has been one-sided with Florida Atlantic holding a 7-1 edge. The Golden Panthers of FIU might have the edge though this year, coming of 2 straight wins (albeit against doormats Western Kentucky and North Texas). The Owls of FAU hold a lone victory against UAB, but did lose by just 13 to now #5 Michigan State earlier this year. Despite the 2-4 record, FIU is tied for first with Troy as the only undefeated Sun Belt teams. They have to hold on to the hope that they can sustain this winning streak and put them into contention for FIU's first ever bowl game. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 31-17

UPSET SPECIAL
KANSAS STATE (5-2) vs 17 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-1) 11a
These 2 teams have one big thing in common, Nebraska and not because you have to drive through Kansas to get to Nebraska. Both teams got scored on at will by the Cornhuskers giving up atleast 48 points to them. The CW put a lot of faith in Oklahoma State last week, but was burned by a suprisingly pass efficient Taylor Martinez. This week the 3 headed monster of Weeden, Hunter, and Blackmon is down to 2 after Blackmon's DUI cost him from suiting up this week. That puts a big emphasis on Hunter, who's 3rd in the nation and might rise to the challenge and prove he can handle the load if needed. K-State is coming off a close high scoring loss to Baylor, that vaulted the Bears from Waco into the top 25. The Wildcats have average 51 points in their last 3 games, and up until last week, had shown a very stingy defense. With Blackmon out, K State will rush the box more often and force Weeden to find other receivers. The Wildcats are no slouch on offense either, they'll the 7th best rusher in the country in Daniel Thomas to pull off the upset in Manhattan.
KANSAS STATE 42-28

GOPHER WATCH
It was hard to do, but I found something the Gophers do better than the Buckeyes, other than finding ways to lose games. The Gophers are actually ranked 1 spot higher than the Buckeyes at 41st in the nation in pass yards per game 246 to 244. This edge is likely to keep the Gophers in the game until the Buckeyes get off the bus at TCF Stadium. The Gophers haven't beat Ohio State since the Middle Ages, but in a silver lining, at least theyre not facing the them in the Metrodome, where Ohio State went undefeated against Minnesota. The last time the Gophers beat Ohio State at home, I wasn't even an embryo (1981). After last week's desperate hope post as an upset special vs Penn State, I know much better now.
OHIO STATE 42-21

NFL

GREEN BAY (4-3) at NY JETS (5-1) 12p
The battle of the green jerseys takes place on Sunday at the New Meadowlands stadium. Green Bay takes its show on the road after their big Sunday night win against the Vikings and Brett Favre's last return to Green Bay. At 4-3, the Packers are tied for the best record in the paltry NFC North. Aaron Rodgers is keeping the injured Packers afloat with steady and productive play, but he'll face a tough corner in Darrell Revis this weekend. On the other side, LT is making all the writers and experts rip up their predictions that he was riding into the sunset. He's back to being the man behind the offense, leading a powerful 1-2 punch of Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. With Sanchez offering enough efficiency to get the ball to them, Braylon Edwards, and Dustin Keller, the Jets have a balanced offensive attack. Coming off a bye week, New York is well rested to face a Packers team that played Sunday night and is duct taping their roster together.
JETS take this game. 34-24

MINNESOTA (2-4) at NEW ENGLAND (5-1) 3:15p
The magic that was last year for the Minnesota Vikings has seemingly lost its luster. After another long offseason of will he or wont he, Favre came back to much fanfare in Minnesota, but has yet to deliver anything remotely consistent to last year. The Vikings 2 wins this year come against 1-5 teams, so despite being in the NFC North, where 9-7 could win the division, the panic button should already have been pushed for the Vikings. Add in the fractured ankle that Favre suffered last week, we don't even know if Favre will be playing this week. Either way, I wouldn't bet on the Vikings right now, especially on the road against New England. Trading Randy Moss and Laurence Maroney have only seemed to help the Patriots, despite lacking a true "star" running back or wide receiver. Brady makes up for that though. He's only tossed 4 interceptions all year and consistently hooks up with Welker on 3rd down.
PATRIOTS overcome a Viking invasion in New England 28-21

PITTSBURGH (5-1) at NEW ORLEANS (4-3) 7:20p
The battle of the last 2 superbowl champions takes place Sunday night at the defending champion's home stadium, the Superdome. The Steelers are just a minute's worth of time away from being undefeated on the season, despite playing the first 4 games without all-pro Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have gotten the job done they way they always do it, by rushing and defense. Mendenhall has been effective enough to offset back-up QB's Batch and Dixon, and the defense is #1 against the run. The Saints have played good but not great and definitely not consistent, trading wins and losses in the last 6 games. They have gotten it done through the air as expected with gunslinger Drew Brees behind center. Injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have hurt the running game, a recent surge by Chris Ivory is positive though. I like Pittsburgh on the road, as they seem to be gelling with Roethlisberger and settling in for another deep post-season run.
STEELERS 28-27

Well that's it for now. Have a safe and happy halloween weekend and don't forget to throw out the orange peanuts and never take candy from strangers unless your in a costume.

bsv
the courtesy wave

TCW Weekend Sports Guide Oct 22nd-24th

Checked the forecast and still couldn't believe it, but we're headed for another 70 degree day here in Minnesota. It's been an amazing fall with record temperatures left and right, but as I was checking the 10 day forecast last night, I was a little humbled to see the high of 40 and a chance of snow on Thursday. So I'll enjoy this day, probably the last time we see 70 until April. Onto the previews and predictions!



MLB
For the first time since 2004, both League Championship series will go to a game 6 in the MLB playoffs. Roy Halladay was just good enough, not dominating, to send his Phillies back home to finish the series. And thanks to the Rays for beating the Yankees out in the AL East this year, the Rangers have the home field advantage and will finish up in Arlington for games 6 and 7 if necessary.

NLCS GAME 6 - LEWIS (TX) vs HUGHES (NYY) Friday 7p (all times CST)
Colby Lewis was and still is a relatively unknown pitcher from the national perspective. A journeyman already who's bounced around starting with Rangers, then the Tigers, A's, a stint with Hiroshima Carp of Japan's Central League, then back to Texas this year. He has a chance to become quite memorable though tonight if he can pitch the Rangers into their first ever world series.
Lewis went 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA this year against the Yankees, however, don't count against him now, Lewis has a 1.69 ERA this postseason in 10 plus innings. He won't overpower you, but he's a smart location pitcher. His opponent will overpower you. Phil Hughes, an 18 game winner has nasty stuff when he's on as evidence in his 7 inning shutout vs. the Twins in the ALDS, however he was quite off in Game 2 giving up 7 runs in 4 innings. Which Hughes will we see, probably less of the latter, but still I like Texas at home to end the series and send a fan base to a place they've never been before. I'm sticking with the Rangers if there's a game 7 and Cliff Lee, the most dominant playoff pitcher of the last half century, would start. Not a bad guy to have in your back pocket.
RANGERS take game 6. If not, they definitely take game 7.

NLCS GAME 6 - OSWALT (PHI) vs. SANCHEZ (SFG) Saturday 3:30p
The series heads back to Philadelphia with a swing of momentum for the Phillies. Facing elimination again, the Phillies turn to their mid-season all-star acquisition in Roy Oswalt to try and force a game 7.
Oswalt has the upper hand with the experience and playing at home, but Sanchez has been terrific this postseason, allowing only 4 runs in 13 plus innings. So there's not a huge disparity in the pitching matchup, unless you count Oswalt's 5 all star noms and 1 NLCS MVP award. Oh that might be a little of an edge. The Giants bats have been sparked by youngsters Ross and Posey, they'll need more of that against Oswalt. The Phillies need Howard to step up, and hope that Jayson Werth continues with momentum from his big homer last night.
PHILLIES take game 6. Game 7 would feature Hamels vs Cain. Hamels has been great, allowing only 3 runs in 15 innings this postseason, but Cain has been even better, with 0 runs in 13 plus innings.
If it goes 7, I'll take the GIANTS, propelling them only 4 games from winning their first world series since 1954.

COLLEGE FOOTBALLOregon kicked off week 7 in college football last night with a 60-13 ass-kicking of UCLA. A Bruins team that had beaten 2 ranked teams this year, so no pushover. But the Ducks are flying high right now, 7-0 with the 2nd leading rusher in the country. Oregon is primed for the BCS National Championship game if they win out, and their schedule is favorable for them to do just that.

TOP 25 FACE OFFS
1 OKLAHOMA (6-0) at 11 MISSOURI (6-0) 7p (all games Saturday)
The #1 ranking carousal lies in the hands of the Sooners this week, who are no strangers to this position. In fact, Oklahoma has held the #1 ranked spot in college football more times than any other school. Coming in just ahead of Notre Dame. They've steamrolled their opponents by an average of score of 36-19 this season, and their coming off a 52-0 dismantling of Iowa State. They'll battle Missouri for the Tiger/Sooner Peace pipe, The Tigers will be their highest ranked opponent this year. History says the odds are stacked against the Tigers. Missouri has lost seven straight and 19 of the last 20 in this series and hasn't beaten Oklahoma since 1998. Overall, the Sooners hold a 66-23-5 advantage in the series, including a 31-15 edge in games played in Columbia. Missouri will rely heavily on their 2nd ranked defense to stop the balances offense of Oklahoma. Too much Sooners in this one, but Missou will put up a fight.
OKLAHOMA 31-24

4 AUBURN (7-0) vs 6 LSU (7-0) 2:30p
I'm going to go out on a limb and say with 100% confidence the Tigers will win this game. Ok that was a joke, both teams have Tigers as their mascot, and the game is often referred to as the Tiger Bowl. For a team that's given up 77 points in their last 2 games, it's hard to figure that Auburn won both of those games to keep their season undefeated. Well one of these teams will notch a 1 in the loss column. But it won't be Auburn, they'll ride high-flying Heisman candidate Cam Newton into the end zone a few times again, not as much as last week, but enough to overcome LSU. The Tigers from the Bayou must establish their rushing game behind Stevan Ridley, if he's shut down, the passing game can't get the job done alone.
AUBURN 41-28

13 WISCONSIN (6-1) at 15 IOWA (5-1) 2:30p
Both teams are coming off statement wins. Iowa on the road against Michigan and Wisconsin at home over then #1 Ohio State.
So both teams are riding momentum into this one, which team will continue and which one will have another speed bump towards the Big Ten Title. Iowa is a defensive minded team, where Wisconsin relies on their backs John Clay and James White. Wisconsin's has 50 rushes of 10 or more yards in 2010, but Iowa is tied for second nationally in fewest rushes of 10 or more yards allowed with 11. There's a great QB matchup between Tolzien (WI) and Stanzi (IA), 2 of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation. Benefit of the doubt will go with Iowa at home looking to retain the Heartland Trophy for the 3rd straight year.
IOWA 24-17

14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) vs 16 NEBRASKA (5-1) 2:30p
There are 2 things that are guaranteed certainties in this game. 1) Nebraska will run, and 2) Oklahoma State will pass. Each team is in the top 4 in the nation in those respective categories. Nebraska's Quarterback Taylor Martinez is bringing comparisons of old husker QB Eric Crouch. A QB that thinks run first, run 2nd, then pass 3rd. If you want to shut down Martinez, make him throw, he has little value then and was even replaced in the 2nd half last week because of his inability to rush against Texas. Still Martinez rushed for 126 and is probably the best freshman in the country at this point. The Cowboys have their own Heisman capable player in WR Justin Blackmon, a guy that grabs comparisons to Michael Crabtree and one that QB Brandon Weeden finds early and often. Weeden and Blackmon will face a top 10 defense in Nebraska though and will need RB Kendall Hunter, a top 10 back, to provide a bulk of the offense too. OK State just has too much offense for Nebraska to keep up with, and Martinez will not be effective enough for this one.
OKLAHOMA STATE 42-34

OTHER BIGGIES
5 TCU (7-0) vs AIR FORCE (5-2) 7p
If the Horned Frogs wants to test their #1 defense in the country, then they can look to Air Force, ironically with the best rushing attack in the nation at 347 yards/game. As good as their rushing game is, the Falcons' passing attack is as brutal with the 5th worst yards/game through the air. TCU can't shut down the run, but they can slow it down and make Air Force throw the ball. This one will be close for about a quarter, TCU is bigger, faster, and more offensively balanced with Heisman worthy candidate Andy Dalton behind the center.
TCU 45-28

7 MICHIGAN STATE (7-0) at NORTHWESTERN (5-1) 11a
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present you with the Big Ten's only undefeated and best record, Michigan State Spartans. A team that is usually good but hardly ever great. They are basking in their best season in decades with eyes on their first Rose Bowl since 1988.
The Spartans are one of the most offensively balanced teams in the nation led by QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker, and WR tandem Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham. The Wildcats offense flows through QB Dan Persa, who also leads the team in rushing, since they lack a viable RB. NW is coming off their first loss of the season to upstart Purdue. This is a huge game at home to determine if the Wildcats are for real this year or just a product of a soft schedule (biggest win at Vanderbilt who is currently 2-4).
MICHIGAN STATE continues its march to Pasadena, 31-17

10 OHIO STATE (6-1) vs PURDUE (4-2) 11a
The Buckeyes got a gut check into reality last weekend after they're upset loss at Wisconsin. I mentioned last weekend how Ohio State hadn't really faced tough competition, and Wisconsin poked holes in their defense all day. Now that Purdue knows Ohio State has weaknesses, tbey can try to push their 2 headed rushing attack of QB Rob Henry and RB Dan Dierking into pay dirt on Saturday. But Ohio State is not going to lay on its back after a demoralizing loss last week, they weren't ranked #1 just on reputation. Look for a lot of Terelle Pryor through the air and on the ground in this one.
OHIO STATE 35-27

20 WEST VIRGINIA (5-1) vs SYRACUSE (4-2) 11a
The battle for the Ben Schwartzwalder Trophy, named after former WVU football player and Syracuse head coach Ben Schwartzwalder, who had died in March 1993 and whom is highlighted in the movie, The Express, takes place in Morgantown tomorrow.
It hasn't been much of a rivalry lately as the Mountaineers have taken the last 8 games. Cuse will again be pushed against the wall this weekend on the road, and is coming off a 45-14 whooping by Pittsburgh at home nontheless. West Virginia knows it has a promising schedule ahead to run the table, and will look to put away Syracuse and pile on some numbers to make the victory more satisfying.
WEST VIRGINIA 42-21

GOPHER WATCH & UPSET SPECIAL
MINNESOTA (1-6) vs PENN STATE (3-3) 11a
The battle for the Governor's Victory Bell, awarded annually between these 2 teams since 1993 takes place Saturday. It was first presented to commemorate Penn State's entry into the Big Ten Conference, with their first league game coming against the Golden Gophers. The series has been streaky on both sides. The Nittany Lions took the first 4 from '93-'98, the Gophers then grabbed the Bell for 4 straight from '99-'04, and Penn State has owned it the last 3 games from '05 to '09. So if each team has it for 4 straight victories, then you should put your chips on Penn State. However, the Nittany Lions don't come into Minneapolis with as much swagger as their accustomed to. They have been ranked for 6 of these matchups, but are only 3-3 this year, and like Minnesota, still looking for their 1st Big Ten win.
Don't expect a whole lot of offense in this one, but if there is, it'll be ugly, these 2 teams do not have efficient offenses with neither in the top 50 in passing or rushing. Penn State wants this game, but Minnesota needs it in so many more ways. First and most obviously, it's the Gophers' first game without Tim Brewster, a mid-season firing that came with a lot of support from boosters and fans. The players desperately want to make a statement that they are better than their record. Lost in all the Brewster and head coaching search news this week has been Adam Weber, the Gophers quiet leader. If Weber throws for more than 100 yards, he'll become just the 5th quarterback in Big Ten history to pass for more than 10,000 career yards. The others: Iowa's Chuck Long (10,461), Northwestern's Brett Basanez (10,580), Purdue's Curtis Painter (11,163) and Purdue's Drew Brees (11,792). The Golden Gophers are my upset special this week, taking advantage of an uncharacteristicly weak Penn State team, and riding the emotions from the week that was.
GOPHERS 24-21

NFL

RIVALRY GAME
VIKINGS (2-3) at PACKERS (3-3) 7:20p
Arguably the biggest rivalry in the NFL, and definately the biggest border state rivalry in pro football will take place in primetime on Sunday evening in Green Bay as the Vikings travel east to face the hated Packers (you can switch around that sentence if your a Packers fan). If you happen to be a cheesehead, you've been looking forward to this matchup since the season ended last year, especially when you found out Brett Favre would be back and make another trip to Lambeau. Favre was victorious in both games vs the Packers last year, leaving a bad taste all around Green Bay last year. The team and their fans desperately want to see Favre and the Vikings lose at Lambeau and get a little revenge and redemption from last year and from Favre's move to the dark side (Minnesota).



Adding flavor to a rivalry that already has enough spice, is the fact that Randy Moss will make his first return to Lambeau field since the infamous Moss mooning in the NFC wildcard playoff game on January 9th, 2005. Rest assured, 5 years is not long enough to displace the memory from the fans there. The boo birds will be out in full force Sunday night. On the field, where the fans cant play, each team is desperate for a win even in the soft NFC, neither team wants a losing record at this point, which is just what the loser will find themselves with after the game. The Vikings are coming off a big must-win game against Dallas last week and are in must-win mode again to get back to .500. On the other side, the Packers are reeling from 2 straight OT losses. In fact the Packers have lost each of their 3 games by exactly 3 points. Their 1 win in the last 4 games came against Detroit by just 2 points. So this team has played in pressure packed tight games all season, and won't be afraid if they fall behind early. The Vikings are hoping for a nostalgic Favre and Moss performances to get past their bitter rival. It's a tough call, but I'll go VIKINGS 24-21.

There you have it folks, I try to keep it short, but find it important to write on instinct and without hesitation. Looking to improve on my season predictions after a let down last weekend.

Until next time, remember that to file your tax returns before April 15th.

bsv
the Courtesy Wave

Gophers search for the "elusive" Golden coach

I love Sunday mornings almost as much as I love Saturday mornings. It's the instant your mind tells you it's not Monday and then you know you have options. The option to sleep in, watch a movie, go for a run, read a book, anything but head to work (unless you love working, in which I may or may not envy you depending on the day). I picked the option to get up and read the paper, except it's 2010, so my paper is online. I opened up my laptop and went straight to the Star Tribune to get the latest local news. Knowing it was Sunday morning, I was already in a good mood, despite another Gophers loss the day before and my fantasy team sporting both starting running back's as questionable. The page popped up and it hit me in the face: BREAKING NEWS - Gophers Fire Brewster. Christmas had come early.



I've been a Gophers fan since I was a kid. I was too young to remember the Lou Holtz short lived era, otherwise known as the last big name coach to wear the maroon & gold.I have really faint memories of the John Gutenkunst stint and I can clearly remember the Jim Wacker days and continuing on with Glen Mason, Tim Brewster, and now the interim fill-in Jeff Horton. So if you're counting at home, after Lou Holtz left, to present day, the Golden Gophers are 124-162-2, a .434 winning percentage, not great, not good, not even average, they've been mediocre at best, routinely finishing in the bottom half of the Big 10, providing the occasional hope and the premise that better years are just around the corner. It's hard to imagine that the Gophers were great at anytime, let alone my lifetime, but in 125 years, the Gophers actually hold a career .575 winning percentage (641–468–44). That means, if you take out my era of watching Gophers football, the team would be left with a 517-306-42, or a .628 winning percentage, which would make them the 18th most successful Division 1A football team behind Miami(FL). Instead, the Gophers are 42nd, just ahead of Troy College.

Some would argue that the program has gotten better and would point to the fact that since 1999, the Gophers have gone to 9 bowl games. Sure, the Gophers have gone to 9 bowl games since then, 3 Insight Bowls, 3 Music City Bowls, 2 Sun Bowls and the Micron.pc bowl game. Not exactly high caliber bowls, even so, the Gophers are 3-6 in those Bowl games playing teams that actually went on to success (Oregon, Texas Tech, Alabama) instead of heading backwards. Those bowls are supposed to be stepping points in a program, not ultimate destinations. Seven of those Bowl games came in the Glen Mason era, who now deserves a lot more credit and is probably secretly grinning from ear to ear after yesterday's announcement, in a sense vindicating his coaching career at Minnesota. Mason was booted out and fired with almost the same support of Brewster's firing if not more. The guy turned the program from unwatchable to watchable and even competitive, churning out stars like Marion Barber, Laurence Maroney, and Matt Spaeth. But Mason could not get over the proverbial hump and catapult the team into the top 5 in the Big Ten among powerhouses Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State.

Brewster was ushered in as the savior of the program, but the savior of what? To bring the team consistency? Mason already provided the consistency, they were consistently average to slightly above average. No, Brewster was brought in to bring the team to the top of the Big Ten and establish the Gophers as a competitive force against the top half, as they had proven legitimate superiority versus the bottom half in teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State and Illinois. Brewster, an unknown and unproven coach somehow wowed over Joel Maturi and the brass at Minnesota that he was the guy destined to take the team where it hadn't been since the 60's. He promised that the "Gopher Nation" was headed to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl during his tenure. That's a pretty big promise, how bout starting somewhere more realistic, like "I promise I'll keep the team afloat during my first ever stint as a head coach (other than high school)."

Brewster sold us all in the ability to recruit, that coaching was secondary to a talented team, if he could just keep the best talent in the state from leaving, the program would right its own ship and the rest would fall like dominoes, or at least that was the plan. If he didn't know it then, he knows it now, recruiting the top players in Minnesota is difficult, it can be done, but the odds are stacked against you. First off, the best players want exposure. They all have dreams that football will lead them to the promise land, aka the NFL, and that life will be grand and taken care of after then. To get there, they need exposure, national TV spotlight. The Gophers don't have it, they might accidentally end up in the national spotlight, but only by way of their opponents in the Big Ten, the Ohio States and Michigans of the world. Yes, the Big Ten has its own network, but who's clamoring to see Minnesota play Northwestern outside of Evanston and Minneapolis? So Brewster instead had to sell the other things, like playing in the brand new TCF stadium, back on campus for the first time in nearly 30 years. That's not an easy sell though, if you're a Minnesota kid, you're thinking I've got offers from Florida and USC, not only can I get the national exposure there, I can play in warm 70 degree weather, instead of the the 50's, 40's, 30's, and unpredictable Minnesota weather. Or try telling that to a kid from Florida who's never lived in a cold climate, ask him to come play here and sell the outdoor stadium, you have to be a pretty good salesman then. But weather isn't a factor at Wisconsin, only 5 hours to the southeast, that's because reputation trumps weather and all else. The Badgers can sell the fact that there will be 70,000 fans at every home game and almost a guaranteed mention on Saturdays on ESPN. The Gophers have a new stadium, but only half the student body section shows up and often the team is booed. Try telling a recruit that there's no guarantee the fans are going to even like you.

Knowing that recruiting doesn't necessarily churn results right away, let's turn to the football field and product on hand. Brewster was actually given a decent squad to work with, having Eric Decker, Adam Weber, Gary Russell, Dominique Barber, and Nate Triplett as holdovers from the Mason era. Brewster made the claim that the Gophers would make history that year, unfortunately it wasn't the history he had in mind. The 2007 Gophers went an unprecedented 1-11 with their only win in a 3OT game vs Miami(OH). Their first 11 loss season and their first win less Big Ten season since 1983. But everyone gave Brewster a pass, saying this was the first year and that change can take time. Yes it can take time, but going in the complete opposite direction instead of at least staying the course was not the change the program needed. Regardless, the team stayed the course with Brewster chalking up the season as motivation for the next one. 2008 went better than '07, but that's hardly an accomplishment. A 7-5 record earned them another Insight Bowl game loss. 4 of their 7 victories came against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic. They finished out the Metrodome history with a 55-0 beating by the hands of Iowa. Still Brewster was praised for bringing the Gophers back, including a brief ranking in the top 25, but really he was just bringing the team back to its Mason state of mediocrity.

In 2009 we saw more of the same Gophers we've seen for the past 3 decades, a team that can beat the lower half of the Big Ten but can't hold a candle to the top. A 6-6 season earned yet another trip to the Insight Bowl and a loss to 6-6 Iowa State in what could be described as the worst Bowl matchup ever and a reason why there are far too many bowl games. It was the first year at TCF though and fans were more excited about the new stadium and more apt to give the team a pass, and celebrate the victory of coming back to campus. 2010 changed all of that momentum however. The new stadium stigma wore off quickly after 4 consecutive home losses to South Dakota, USC, Northern Illinois, and Northwestern, another history maker in the Tim Brewster era. The nail was already in the coffin, Brewster was just waiting for the pink slip and if finally came after another lackluster defeat to Purdue on Saturday. Thus ended another dissappointing coaching career at Minnesota. Brewster went 15-30 in 3 plus years. His biggest signature win arguably was a 2009 victory on the road over Northwestern 35-24, a Wildcats team that finished 8-5. Yep, that's the best I could find. In fact the only other Big Ten teams Brewster beat were Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan State, otherwise known as the bottom half of the Big Ten (kudos to the Spartans for a great 2010 so far).

Now the Gophers search for that new coach that will lead the team back to glory, but what kind of glory? Are we just desperate to get back to the mediocrity? Or are the fans going to jump on the new guy's back and ride all of their hopes and dreams to, dare I say, a bowl worth mentioning, a top 20 ranking, the top half of the Big Ten? What can the fans expect? The Gophers might be best to mirror the strategy by which the Men's Basketball team took in 2007. In the same year Brewster was hired, a guy by the name of Tubby Smith was introduced as the new Head Basketball coach, he had a little thing on his resume called a National Championship, a lot bigger bargaining chip then say a Tight Ends coach for the Broncos. Tubby didn't need to sell himself as a recruiter, he was the selling point. The Gophers immediately brought in talent and posted three straight 20 win seasons including 2 trips to the NCAA tournament. While it's argued that the basketball team still has a ways to go, Tubby has not gone backwards one bit and has only strengthened the program. If the football team wants an edge on recruiting in a tough state and conference to keep top talent from going elsewhere, they would be best served to bring in a guy with nationally recognized talent, who would in turn bring national exposure, who just might keep 1 or 2 star recruits from leaving the state, which could turn 5 or 6 wins into 8 or 9.

That's the theory of course, as a Gophers fan speculation and hope is all you can rely on, proven strategies have fallen by the wayside before in Minneapolis. Will the next coach bring us to the Promise Land, or just grant us more promises for next year? This fan hopes and dreams for the former, but won't be surprised to see the latter.

Until next time, remember to test your smoke detectors.

bsv
the courtesy wave

TCW - College Football Couch Guide 10/16

Watched Nothing But Trouble last night. It's an old movie starring Chevy Chase, Demi Moore, John Candy, and Dan Aykroyd, mostly off the radar film, hadn't seen it since I was a kid. I found out it actually is more of a comedy than a horror. The same thing happened when I watched Edward Scissorhands many years later and found out it too was actually a dark comedy. Akroyd's character in NBT, scared the bejesus out of me as a kid, but as an adult, he was hilarious. The movie is B quality, but still it was a treasure find on Encore last night, but I digress to today's topic. Since I highlighted the MLB playoffs yesterday, today's post will be on Saturday's College Football key matchups. Let's see who should come out on top and who might have nothing but trouble.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(all times CST)

RANKED MATCHUPS

#1 OHIO STATE (6-0) at #18 WISCONSIN (5-1) 6pm
The new number 1 in the land after Alabama's loss last weekend, Ohio State has a difficult matchup to try and avoid going 1 and done at the top of college football. The Buckeyes have steamrolled all 6 of their opponents so far this year, but other than a previously ranked Miami squad, Ohio State hasn't faced the toughest competition, until now. The sea of Red fans will be nothing new to the Red White and Silver Buckeyes, but the 11th ranked rushing offense, led by John Clay (8th in the nation) of Wisconsin will be. Throw in top 20 Quarterback Scott Tolzien, the Buckeyes will have to be on top of their game defensively. Good thing for them, they are already, having the 7th best defense in the country. Offensively they are in great shape too, coming in 6th in the nation in scoring behind all-star quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who boasts the 6th best QB rating in the country. This is a tough one to call, but I;ll go with the team who's been at number 1 before and should find a way to win. OHIO STATE 27-24

#7 AUBURN (6-0) vs #12 ARKANSAS (4-1) 2:30pm
Where one team runs, the other passes. A style of two very different offenses will be showcased in Auburn on Saturday. Arkansas will take to the air with pro-Quarterback-in-waiting Ryan Mallet. Mallet is 3rd in passing and 7th in QB rating in the country and has 2 go-to receivers in Joe Adams and the 6'3" Greg Childs. Auburn's strength is also in their quarterback, but where Mallet throws, Cam Newton runs. Newton is 12th in the nation in rushing (not the top QB though...we'll get to that). Auburn's 2nd leading rusher and their feature tailback, Michael Dyer is just 5'9" and a freshman, yet he's out rushing Arkansas's best runner by 187 yards. Newton doesn't throw much, but he is efficient, having the 2nd highest QB rating in the country at 181. If they trade points on the pass/rush game, then which defense will step up to make the difference. Auburn has allowed 24 or more points in 4 of their 6 games, including 34 last week to reeling Kentucky. Arkansas has not allowed more than 24 points in ANY of their games this year. Their only loss came to then #1 Alabama, losing late in that game. Arkansas needs this game badly to make a statement and stay in the SEC race. Auburn could be ready for a letdown. Arkansas scores quicker on the pass and stops Newton. ARKANSAS 31-24

RIVALRY GAMES
#5 NEBRASKA (5-0) vs TEXAS (3-2) 2:30pm
111 out of 120. That's Nebraska's ranking in the passing game. That's right, the 5th ranked Cornhuskers have thrown for less yards than Akron, Ohio, Temple, Tulane, Florida International...I could go on all day. So they can't get it down through the air, they dominate in the running game as you probably guessed. The Cornhuskers are 2nd in the nation in rushing at 337.6 yards per game, trailing only, ironically, Air Force. Like Auburn above, Nebraska is led by there fleet of foot quarterback, Taylor Martinez, who comes in 6th in the country in rushing (yet still does not lead all quarterbacks in rushing...just wait, we'll get there). Texas is coming off a bye week after a tough loss to their biggest rival Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout/Rivalry. They are an average team by most standards, not a typical Longhorns squad that usually boasts multiple NFL superstar talents. They've failed to break the top 50 in passing and rushing, and could use a signature victory to bring them back into the top 25 discussion. Nebraska needs this game more however, they're top 5 ranking has been scrutinized with a soft schedule, owning victories over Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, and a non-impressive win over South Dakota State, the Cornhuskers need to prove their top 5 ranking is legit. NEBRASKA 42-24

#8 ALABAMA (5-1) vs MISSISSIPPI (3-2) 8pm
How will the Crimson Tide react after losing their first game since 2008 last week at South Carolina. If your the red and white, you want to come home and face a team with a weak defense; which is just the recipe they have in this game against Ole Miss. The Rebels are in the headlines this week, not for their play, but for their new mascot change to the Rebel Black Bear (who's actually brown), their first change since abolishing the original old Southern Plantation owner mascot/logo in 2002. The Rebels don't make any headlines on defense, having allowed a combined 121 points to Jacksonville State, Fresno State, and Kentucky. If Alabama's Julio Jones is healthy, look for Greg McElroy to light him up early and often. Even if he's not ready, this should be a bounce back game for Alabama, a team that's faced 4 ranked opponents already. ALABAMA 35-28


#20 OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) at TEXAS TECH (3-2) 2:30pm
If you're looking for a place to watch good fireworks this weekend, you might want to steer your remote or drive on over to Lubbock, Texas and watch these to gong show offenses go at it. The Cowboys of OK State have lit up opponents through a 3 headed monster of an offense. Quarterback Brandon Weeden ranks 11th in the country in passer rating, Running back Kendall Hunter is the 7th best rusher, and Justin Blackmon is 3nd in yards receiving and 4th in scoring. And even if the Cowboys can't reach the end zone, they have super kicker Dan Bailey, who's 4th in the nation in field goals made and a perfect 6-6 from 40 plus. Texas Tech can toss the oblong ball well too though, their QB, Taylor Potts has averaged 330 yards per game himself, but Texas Tech has been giving up points at will, 38 in the past 2 weeks to average at best Iowa State and Baylor each. They'll need a home cooking in this one to slow down and upset the Cowboys. OKLAHOMA STATE 48-35

CLOSEST BUS RIDE GAME
HOUSTON (3-2) at RICE (1-5) 2:30pm
Cougar fans won't have to go far to see their team play on the road tomorrow. In fact, toss the keys aside and skip the bus, its only 4 miles from one campus to another. I don't have a ton to say about this matchup other than the team's close proximity, my guess is if you're an alumni or a resident of Houston you would take interest, but that's about it. Houston came in this year with high hopes after a good season last year, but have only beat relative competition and failed in losses to UCLA and Mississippi State. The Owls 1 win came against North Texas 32-31 in a pillow fight. They will probably step up in this cross-town rivalry but only for the first half. HOUSTON 35-17

UPSET SPECIAL

#15 IOWA (4-1) at MICHIGAN (5-1) 2:30pm
When you're 5-1, playing at home in front of 100K plus fans, and have all-world quarterback Denard Robinson at your disposal, its hard to imagine that you'd be the underdog. But the AP has Iowa ranked and Michigan without a number beside it, so the favored team will be the black and gold Hawkeyes from Iowa. The biggest difference in why Iowa is ranked and Michigan isn't is probably from the Hawkeyes top 25 defeat of Penn State and the Wolverines top 25 loss to Michigan State. Otherwise these teams have beat up bad opponents in their victories. Back to that all-world talented Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson, who leads the nation in rushing (unbelievable) and has the 12th highest passer rating (164.1). They'll need all the offense they can muster against the nation's TOP defense in Iowa, only allowing 10.4 point/game. Look for Michigan to bounce back this week and beat behind the strength of Robinson, who will be Iowa's toughest test this year. MICHIGAN 24-14

GOPHER WATCH
MINNESOTA (1-5) at PURDUE (3-2) 11am
If you absolutely have to watch and have nothing better to do on a cool fall day, then I suppose you can tune into this one if you get the Big Ten Network. I shouldn't be this hard on the Gophers, they are trying despite having an inept and still unproven coach 3 years into the Brewster project. The Gophers might just have a squeaker of a chance against a Purdue team with a questionable winning record. The Boilermakers 3 victories come against Western Illinois, Ball State, and Northwestern. The last, actually was a good road win against a then undefeated Northwestern team who has one of the best QB's in the Big Ten. If the Gophers O Line can keep DE Ryan Kerrigan (5.5 sacks) off of Weber, he might be able to get the ball to Marquis Gray, they're best weapon. But the Gophers have showed little in the ability to stop even modest offenses. Purdue is a decent running team and if the Gophers can't stop the run, they won't win the game. PURDUE 24-21

Well those are my Saturday picks, there's some more good matchups if your interested, USC/Cal, Illinois/Michigan State, Nevada/Hawaii, Missouri/Texas A&M, and Mississippi State/Florida should also tickle your fancy.

That's it for now, put your feet up and enjoy the weekend. Until next time, remember to close the shower curtain after use.

bsv
the courtesy wave

TCW - ALCS/NLCS Games 1 & 2 Preview

Are you ready for some baseball? Whether you're a sports fanatic or just a casual fan, this is the best time of the year for baseball and once again there are plenty of story lines and drama that will unfold over the next few weeks. This post coincides with tomorrow's weekend predictions, but I felt it needed to stand alone because of the importance of the games, therefore the CW will preview and predict the first 2 games of each series.



The ALDS is officially in the books and now it's time for the League Championship Series! The Reds, Braves, Rays, and my beloved Twins were all knocked out this past week setting up the Phillies vs the Giants in the NL, and the Rangers vs the Yankees in the AL. If you want the best 2 teams in the World Series, then you're pulling for a Yankees/Phillies matchup. But if you're like me you want to see the underdogs win for a change and are pulling for a Rangers/Giants world series that would guarantee to relieve a long suffering fan base. TCW predicts this weekend's matchups.

The 2 matchups are almost polar opposites from a pitching to hitting perspective. In the AL, the Rangers/Yankees series is all about offense where both teams are in the top 10 in nearly every offensive team category including the most runs and best on-base percentage (Yankees 589 & .350) and the best team batting average (Rangers .276). In the NL, the Phillies and Giants are both in the top 6 in the league in terms of team ERA, Quality starts, and WHIP (walks & hits per inning pitched), with the Giants posting the lowest team ERA (3.36) and the Phillies with the best WHIP(1.25).

ALCS GAME 1 - WILSON(TX) vs SABATHIA(NY)
Because Cliff Lee had to finish off the Rays in Game 5 of their ALDS series, we won't be seeing arguably the 2 best pitchers in the AL this year. This is a huge advantage for New York. Sabathia has wicked stuff, led the league in wins, is as intimidating as they come with the big frame, and has postseason veteran experience, aka, he's been here before. CJ Wilson is no pushover though. He had a great year at 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA including 3 complete games. He struggled in September, but picked things up nicely in the Division series vs Tampa shutting them out in 6 plus innings. However, given the Rangers first ever LCS game, the jitters will be out there, look for Sabathia to set the tone and if given an early lead, erase all doubt. YANKEES take game 1.

ALCS GAME 2 - LEWIS(TX) vs HUGHES(NY)
The Pitching matchup isn't as lopsided as game 1, but the advantage still lies with New York, sending out their 18 game winner ahead of Andy Petitte to face Colby Lewis who went 12-13 on the year and has a career ERA of 5.27. Like his record, Lewis is hit or miss and don't expect him to go more than 6 innings, he did shutout the Rays last week in 5 innings however, so he's pitching well. Hughes dominating the Twins in the ALDS last week, but the Twins barely showed up to play. The Rangers lineup features power hitters from top to bottom and relies heavily on its offense. Hughes is a fly ball pitcher and the Rangers can only hope some of those fly balls reach the seats in fair territory. New York will be favored, but look for Guerrero, Hamilton, Cruz, Nelson or any other of the hot texas bats to come alive and bring some magic in Arlington. RANGERS take game 2.

NLCS GAME 1 - HALLADAY (PHIL) vs LINCECUM (SF)
If you're a baseball fan and you can only pick 1 game to watch this weekend, this would be it. Last year's CY young (Lincecum) versus this year's CY Young (Halladay, not released yet, but will win in a landslide). Halladay is the best pitcher on the planet right now, coming off his best season in a remarkable career that will eventually end up in the HOF. Oh and he became just the 2nd pitcher EVER to throw a no-hitter in the post-season. His opponent on the mound is no slouch either, Lincecum is arguably coming off a top 10 all-time postseason performance too in his 2 hit, 14 strikeouts, shutout of the Braves last week. He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a start since August either. Look for a low-scoring, tight battle in what should be an exciting game 1. PHILLIES take it behind the strength of Halladay...but it'll be close.

NLCS GAME 2 - HAMELS (PHIL) vs SANCHEZ (SF)
No 2 pitchers we're more alike this year than Hamels and Sanchez. They're 2010 stats nearly mirrored each other. Hamels went 12-11 with a 3.06 ERA, 211 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. Whereas Sanchez went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 205 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP. Furthermore, both pitchers finished the season (September and on) with a 4-1 record and sub 2 ERA's. So where's the edge? Postseason experience. Hamels has been here, Sanchez hasn't. We saw how dominant Hamels can be in the 2008 postseason where he absolutely dominated going 5-0 with a 0.91 ERA. But then last year, he largely disappeared in the postseason, going 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA. But it looks like he's back to the 2008 Cole Hamels after a 5 hit shutout of the Reds last week. Like game 1, this game should be close, but Hamels will be too strong at home, PHILLIES take game 2.

I'll preview games 3 & 4 on Monday and clean up any mistakes and missteps from this post. Until then, don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

bsv
the courtesy wave

Minnesota Sports Misery Rankings

As I turned the key in the ignition this morning, my radio came on and the first song I heard was Maroon 5's Misery and I thought to myself, how fitting. Just a day after the Vikings loss on Monday Night Football and a couple days after the Twins got swept out of the playoffs, "Misery" was a fitting song for the drive in this morning.



It also has inspired a new weekly post idea here at the Courtesy Wave. A lot of sites and sports writers have "Power Rankings". We don't need anymore of those, every expert from Tijuana to Tehran presenting their thoughts on who's the best of the best. No, we need something more defining of Minnesota Sports, therefore the Courtesy Wave proudly presents The MN Sports Misery Rankings. Here's how it will go and what teams will be measured. Minnesota is one of 13 markets to house all 4 of the major professional sports: MLB, NFL, NBA, & NHL. That gives us the Twins, Vikings, Timberwolves, and Wild respectively. Next is the Division 1 sports teams of the University of Minnesota: Gopher Football, Gopher Basketball, Gopher Hockey. There are 4 other D1 Hockey schools, Bemidji State, Mankato, Duluth, and St. Cloud, but they are considered more regional and only gather a city or alumni following usually, thus are left off the rankings.

Each team will find themselves in different categories of hope and despair and everything in between. All teams will be included in the rankings whether they are in season or not; an off season trade or signing can often effect the Misery Rankings. I will start with the team with the most hope and slowly dwindle down to the last team, leaving you in despair, just the way it should be.

EUPHORIC
None, a team would have to win a championship to reach this level. The state would effectively shut down if any team were to win one.

GLEEFUL
None. Teams in this category are championship contenders and not just playoff participants.

CONTENT
The Twins top the optimistic side of the rankings this week despite recently losing to the Yankees in the ALDS. The reason I have this team as keeping the fans content, is because they once again had a great regular season run and made the playoffs for the 6th time in 9 years. Although the Twins have not advanced to the world series since 1991, this ranking is about the current state of the Twins, who may be just a few key players away from taking the next step into Gleeful..but they could step down just as easily though. And even Mauer's ineptitude in the postseason will most likely be forgotten in time as Baby Jesus can do no wrong.

OPTIMISTIC
The Minnesota Golden Gophers Basketball team is coming off a 20 win season and back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances in just their 3 years under Tubby Smith. The start of the 4th year begins this Friday at Midnight madness when college teams can officially start practicing. You might be wondering why I put a Gophers Basketball team that loses its top scorer, Westbrook, top post man, Johnson, and a host of legal issues in the optimistic category, it all relates to one man, Tubby Smith. The man is a Messiah around these parts, booted out of Kentucky, we throw rose pedals at his feet and beg that we're not worthy to be in his presence...that's how hungry Minnesota fans are. This year, they bring a talented young team with Nolen back at the point and Hoffarber, Williams, Mbakwe (barring legal issues), and Iverson, this team could be headed back to the big Dance and even make some noise.

POTENTIAL OPTIMISM
The Gopher Hockey team always gives the state's loyal hockey followers reason to hope. U Hockey consistently pulls in the top talent around the country and world which gives the fans hope that the Gophers will light up Mariucci for another title run. However, they have fallen behind as teams in the WCHA have caught up to the Gophers and now the competition is just as good with Wisconsin, UND, and even UMD ahead of the Gophers in many pre-season rankings.

JURY'S OUT
The Minnesota Wild begun there season across the pond in Finland, unfortunately the team left their jockstraps at home, scoring only 1 point in 2 games against Carolina. Not even the 3 Finnish Wild players could help this team to a win, however 2 games isn't enough to make this team depressing yet, however, so they will teeter for now until the Jury comes back from lunch.

DEPRESSING
The Vikings come in this week in the depressing category after they're heartbreaking loss to the NY Jets on MNF, left the team at 1-3, even after the re-acquisition of Randy Moss. If I we're making this post 2 days ago, the Vikings would be in the Optimistic category after the Moss trade and a rested team off the bye. Well all of that energy was sucked out of Minnesota last night after Favre showed up in the 2nd half to play, but ultimately was too late to the party and threw the game costing pick late in the 4th quarter. The team was really hyped this year, Favre's last and all the key players back, this has definitely been a depressing first quarter of the season.

FLEETING HOPE
The Minnesota Timberwolves have become the laughingstock of the NBA after failed trades, draft picks, and free agent signings. But with bad teams, come high draft picks, which means the some of the best college players come to Minnesota (at least that's the theory). This year's team has 7 former top 10 draft picks, that's amazing in itself. However, a bunch have been bust material, some like Beasley and Love have a ton of upside. This team will not come close to contending this year, but they have just enough hope to give the fan base something to think about...at least until the 2nd week of the season.


MISERABLE
Congratulations to the Gophers Football team for topping (bottoming) out the first Misery Rankings here on the TCW. Actually, the term miserable is maybe going too light on these Gophers, pathetic, embarrassing, and painful, might better describe this years version of Gophers football. After beating Middle Tennessee on the road to start the season, its been all downhill, and a steep downhill at that, for the boys in Maroon & Gold. Since that squeaker of a victory over a Sun Belt team, the Gophers made history by becoming the first U team to lose 4 straight home games in 100 years, one of which came to FBS South Dakota...yep, the Coyotes, who got beat by North Dakota State a couple weeks later 38-16. The Gophers will not be favored in any remaining game and will be hard pressed to make any remaining game worth watching.

There you have it folks, the Courtesy Wave's first MN Sports Misery Rankings. I'll try to update this weekly, we can all "hope" that our "misery" will soon be lifted or at least relieved, even if briefly.

Until then, remember to dot your i's and cross your t's.

bsv
the Courtesy Wave

US-China Currency Wars

The Courtesy Wave is going global today. Business global that is. Last night in my MBA Finance class we had a great discussion on the current bill that was recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on imposing tariffs on all Chinese goods. Before we get into the discussion, let's first outline what and why the bill was proposed in the first place. Then I'll discuss the potential positive and negatives that could be affected by such legislation.



The Problem
The U.S. House of Representatives last week passed H.R. 2378, the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, by a vote of 348 to 79. Before we even tackle the actual bill, there has to be a reason to to impose a tariff on Chinese goods. The U.S. isn't just trying to stir up business and tax goods on Chinese imports and exports for nothing. This all relates to the current value China has placed on their Renminbi, the official currency of the People's Republic of China, who's principle currency is the Yuan. Unlike most countries, the Renminbi is not a floating currency. A floating currency allows for a fluctuating exchange rate wherein a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate according to the foreign exchange market. The United States dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar all use a floating currency. A floating currency adjusts appropriately to inflation, interests rates and exchange rates.



The Chinese government has been accused of undervaluing the Renminbi for quite some time. As of today, 1 Chinese yuan = 0.1495 US dollars. Why would a country do this? Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the theory of long-term equilibrium exchange rates based on relative price levels of two countries. Therefore, the price of a say a bushel of wheat, aside from transaction costs, should be of the same value from one country to another. Or in China's case, where the Renminbi is considered undervalued, that same bushel of wheat is actually worth more and thus costs more from than the US dollar. In fact, the GDP per capita of China is about $1,800, however with the Renminbi and PPP, its actually more like $7,200. That's a pretty big difference. Chinese exporters have benefited hugely from an undervalued currency; along with productivity gains, the country has for years produced monster trade surpluses, and boasted the world's highest levels of foreign exchange reserves. The majority of these reserves are held in US dollars, mainly US government bonds.

The Bill
The U.S. is trying desperately to save its economy. Fresh from the great recession, the country is looking anywhere to avoid slipping into another and going back even further, creating possible irreparable damage. The U.S. has a huge unemployment problem and with cheap labor and cheap goods available in China, corporations can't avoid the fact that outsourced labor and imported goods are much more friendly on the bottom line then paying a more skilled US labor force. Therefore, congress is proposing this bill as a way to bring back jobs to the US. Yep, another jobs bill.

The Positives
OK, yes it could potentially bring hundreds of thousands of jobs back to the states, which would lower unemployment, boost consumer spending, and generally fuel our economy with U.S. dollars. I'll stick with the positives for now. If you think, we're back to the glory days of the mid-90's, think again. Our unemployment issue is and will be a huge problem going forward in this country. We are moving from an economy built on manufacturing and services, to a technology and entertainment/consumer discretionary driven society. Want proof? Exxon makes up the greatest share of the S&P 500, however Apple is poised to take over that spot. If Apple becomes more valuable than Exxon, it will be only the second time that a growing technology company which doesn't pay dividends will make up the greatest share of the S&P 500. The first, Microsoft Corp., held the position for two years in the late 1990s during the boom that made personal computers a staple in households around the world. So if we're moving towards a digital world, we are also moving towards a highly skilled workforce. Which leads to my next point below.



The Negatives
If we're moving towards a mid-to high level skilled workforce, how will creating a tariff on exporting Chinese goods help the US job force? The theory for the bill holds that the cost of exporting goods from China would be more than the cost of supplying the goods domestically. But when we compare the labor force of China to the US, that's where the disparity and holes of the bill start becoming more apparent. A lot of the goods that we receive from China are made in factories that pay their workers peanuts on the dollar and their government has no incentives to change this because the demand for jobs easily out weighs the standard of living. Where in the US, people are much less likely to take minimum wage jobs or less when you consider the cost and standard of living that the US is so famous for. Even more so, our unemployment benefits often outweigh the alternative of a lower paid, lower skilled job. Furthermore, American corporations may just shift their outsourcing to Indonesia, Vietnam, or the Philippines who would offer just as cheap labor as China and provide the same outputs, avoiding increased labor costs of a US workforce.

There's also the undeniable fact that we absolutely need imports to survive. The US is rich with natural resources, but could not sustain the beast that is the US consumer without help from the rest of the world. And who lists the US as its biggest importer? Yep, you guessed it, China, something to the tune of $220 Billion in US dollars last year alone, of which the highest imports were electrical machinery and equipment. Do you see where I'm going with this? The US may hold the power in creating a tariff against Chinese imports/exports, but the Chinese have just as much power in deciding how what to do with those and where to export.


The ramifications are wide-spread. Not only could the bill have a reverse effect on job creation, it could, I mean, it already has, pissed China off. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had this to say:

"We firmly oppose the US Congress approving these bills. Exercising protectionism against China under the excuse of the renminbi exchange rate will only severely damage China-US trade and economic ties and have a negative impact on the two countries' economies and the world economy. The US bill is inconsistent with relevant rules of the World Trade Organisation to conduct an anti-subsidy investigation based on exchange rate reasons. China has never undervalued its currency in order to gain a competitive advantage. The US cannot use its trade deficit with China as an excuse to adopt trade protectionist measures."

In supposedly unrelated news today, China is imposing import tariffs on US poultry of up to 105.4%, according to the country’s Ministry of Commerce. Chinese officials denied that the inquiry was in retaliation for the US imposing tariffs on Chinese tires, but poultry is one of the few categories in which the US runs a trade surplus with China, making it an ideal target for Chinese trade actions. Whether this is true or not, the wars have begun.

Look, the US is dead right that China is undervaluing its currency. Maybe someone needed to step up and put their foot down and the US, still holding onto that title of leaders of the free world, is the one who fits the bill so to speak to do so. However, the US could be engaging in a very slippery slope. One that could turn ugly if China retaliates with their own tariffs, thus just cancelling the US plans and raising taxes for everyone, which could in turn hurt US consumer spending, of which 70% of our economy is fueled by. Here's hoping I'm proved wrong.

Hope you enjoyed the read and maybe learned a few things in the process.

till next time, ride the wave and remember only you can prevent forest fires.

bsv
the courtesy wave