From a logical point of view, it can be tough to assign a large part of payroll to guys that only pitch an inning or two every other game. If you take the stance of paying per game played then its natural to think the bullpen shouldn't be given anything close to the hitters. The major league record for games played by a pitcher in one season is 106 done by Mike Marshall in 1974. On average though, a healthy reliever can expect to pitch in about 75 games. Matt Capps pitched in 85 games in 2006, the highest career mark of any Twin on the staff. But if we go by games played, it would seem that bullpen guys are more important than starters, which we know is not the case. Therefore if we disect by innings, we know that on average a good season for a starter is 200 innings. For relievers, its almost safe to assume the amount of games equals the amount of innings. Therefore a good season would result in roughly 75 innings. This gives the starters an easy comeback when faced with the objection that they only play every 5th game. Salaries between starters and offensive players opens another can of worms and can be debated at another time.
Ok, so we've established that out of the 3 segments of a team, the offense, starting pitching, and the bullpen, the last of the three, the bullpen, comes in last on the payroll priority. Or does it? Obviously there's a high premium on closers. It's the most pressure packed position in the bullpen and should be given luxury to the few who have proven able to conquer the position. The Twins knew coming into 2011 that with a healthy Joe Nathan, they had what few teams in the league had, 2 all-star closers. A value that probably gave the Twins a little bit more wiggle room to let go of their veteran arms. One would be the closer, the other, the 8th inning set-up man. That leaves just a few high impact bullpen spots left, and on the pay scale, considerably less valuable. Therefore, the Twins believed that letting go of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, and Ron Mahay was acceptable given the fact that their value had exceeded the perceived value of their positions.
But the Twins problems in this method was that the two highest valued positions, the closer and set-up were so egragiously over-valued that there was no room to pay fair value, let alone a premium for the other positions. Joe Nathan and Matt Capps are earning a collective $18.4 million this season. The only other bullpen player earning more than one million is Kevin Slowey at $2.7 million. Slowey was supposed to be the long reliever after being the odd man out, but he's unsatisfied with his role and is basically useless as the Twins try to decide how to move him. The rest of the bullpen has been a revolving door between Minneapolis and Rochester, NY. Maybe this shouldn't surprise the Twins, because the level of talent in those positions at the beginning of the season was razor thin in comparison to what was at Triple A. But that's what you pay for right?
So how are the five veterans doing since they left free agency and what contributions are they bringing to their new teams?
Matt Guerrier signed a 3 year, $12 million deal with the Dodgers. So far it's paying off for them. While the Dodgers are just 21-28, Guerrier has pitched the most innings out of the bullpen with 24.2, going 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA, 1 save and has yet to give up a long ball.
Jesse Crain signed a 3 year, $13 million deal to stay in the AL Central, but with the hated rival, the Chicago White Sox. Like Guerrier, Crain is on an underperforming team (22-27), but at this time, everyone is on a better team than the Twins. But also like Guerrier, Crain has tossed the most innings in the bullpen with 22. He's 1-1 with a sizzling 2.45 ERA and 23 strikeouts.
Jon Rauch, the major league's tallest player ever at 6-11, signed a 1 year, $3.75 million deal with Toronto. He slid into the closer role after Frank Francisco failed to keep the job. Rauch is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA with 5 saves. The Blue Jays are 24-23 and in 4th place in the majors toughest division, the AL East. They are right in the thick of it though, just 1.5 games behind NY and Tampa for the lead.
Brian Fuentes signed a 2 year, $2.5 million deal with Oakland to be their closer. At 22-26, Oakland is last in the West, but like Toronto, their right in the thick of it, just 3 games behind Texas for the AL West lead. Fuentes has struggled compared to the rest of the A's pitchers. Currently the A's have the best pitching staff in all of baseball at a mere 2.90 ERA. Fuentes however is just 1-7 (7 losses leads the league), with a 5.10 ERA. However Fuentes is 5th in the AL with 9 saves in 11 opportunities. Proving that he usually gets the job done when given the chance.
Ron Mahay signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks in the spring, but was released in May. At 39, Mahay's career is likely over. But if he wanted to continue and was willing to sign on to a minimum just to play, the Twins might be best to give him a call. While Mahay doesn't excite too many, between 2009 and 2010, Mahay played in 57 games, pitching 43 innings going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 33 K's.
So looking back, now that the Twins sport the majors worst bullpen, with a 5.21 ERA, was it worth the savings? Mind you that the bullpen's effectiveness relied on the assumption that the starters would consistently toss 6 innings or more. At 21 quality starts (6 IP, 3 runs or less), the Twins are last in the American League. What was the contigency plan if the Twins bullpen had to be relied upon more than the norm. Even more so, how valuable are those non-closer roles now that the Twins are scoring runs at a turtle's pace and the starters are barely pitching enough for decisions? These are the questions that should have been asked at the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, the Twins looked at the bullpen as spoke on the wheel, instead of lever that would help move it.
Ok, well that's about enough on the bullpen. They are trying and injuries have led to a less than desirable situation. However, if hindsight was 20/20, I find it hard to believe they would attack 2011 with the same bullpen plan.
Until next time, remember to dust once a week to reduce allergies.
Brock
TCW
No comments:
Post a Comment