2011 Twins Bullpen Plan = Worst Idea Ever?

The biggest question heading into the season, sans any injury concerns, was the bullpen. Why? because the team decided to forgoe nearly all of their veteran arms in lieu of paying large sums of money for them to stay.

From a logical point of view, it can be tough to assign a large part of payroll to guys that only pitch an inning or two every other game. If you take the stance of paying per game played then its natural to think the bullpen shouldn't be given anything close to the hitters. The major league record for games played by a pitcher in one season is 106 done by Mike Marshall in 1974. On average though, a healthy reliever can expect to pitch in about 75 games. Matt Capps pitched in 85 games in 2006, the highest career mark of any Twin on the staff. But if we go by games played, it would seem that bullpen guys are more important than starters, which we know is not the case. Therefore if we disect by innings, we know that on average a good season for a starter is 200 innings. For relievers, its almost safe to assume the amount of games equals the amount of innings. Therefore a good season would result in roughly 75 innings. This gives the starters an easy comeback when faced with the objection that they only play every 5th game. Salaries between starters and offensive players opens another can of worms and can be debated at another time.

Ok, so we've established that out of the 3 segments of a team, the offense, starting pitching, and the bullpen, the last of the three, the bullpen, comes in last on the payroll priority. Or does it? Obviously there's a high premium on closers. It's the most pressure packed position in the bullpen and should be given luxury to the few who have proven able to conquer the position. The Twins knew coming into 2011 that with a healthy Joe Nathan, they had what few teams in the league had, 2 all-star closers. A value that probably gave the Twins a little bit more wiggle room to let go of their veteran arms. One would be the closer, the other, the 8th inning set-up man. That leaves just a few high impact bullpen spots left, and on the pay scale, considerably less valuable. Therefore, the Twins believed that letting go of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, and Ron Mahay was acceptable given the fact that their value had exceeded the perceived value of their positions.

But the Twins problems in this method was that the two highest valued positions, the closer and set-up were so egragiously over-valued that there was no room to pay fair value, let alone a premium for the other positions. Joe Nathan and Matt Capps are earning a collective $18.4 million this season. The only other bullpen player earning more than one million is Kevin Slowey at $2.7 million. Slowey was supposed to be the long reliever after being the odd man out, but he's unsatisfied with his role and is basically useless as the Twins try to decide how to move him. The rest of the bullpen has been a revolving door between Minneapolis and Rochester, NY. Maybe this shouldn't surprise the Twins, because the level of talent in those positions at the beginning of the season was razor thin in comparison to what was at Triple A. But that's what you pay for right?

So how are the five veterans doing since they left free agency and what contributions are they bringing to their new teams?

Matt Guerrier signed a 3 year, $12 million deal with the Dodgers. So far it's paying off for them. While the Dodgers are just 21-28, Guerrier has pitched the most innings out of the bullpen with 24.2, going 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA, 1 save and has yet to give up a long ball.

Jesse Crain signed a 3 year, $13 million deal to stay in the AL Central, but with the hated rival, the Chicago White Sox. Like Guerrier, Crain is on an underperforming team (22-27), but at this time, everyone is on a better team than the Twins. But also like Guerrier, Crain has tossed the most innings in the bullpen with 22. He's 1-1 with a sizzling 2.45 ERA and 23 strikeouts.

Jon Rauch, the major league's tallest player ever at 6-11, signed a 1 year, $3.75 million deal with Toronto. He slid into the closer role after Frank Francisco failed to keep the job. Rauch is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA with 5 saves. The Blue Jays are 24-23 and in 4th place in the majors toughest division, the AL East. They are right in the thick of it though, just 1.5 games behind NY and Tampa for the lead.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2 year, $2.5 million deal with Oakland to be their closer. At 22-26, Oakland is last in the West, but like Toronto, their right in the thick of it, just 3 games behind Texas for the AL West lead. Fuentes has struggled compared to the rest of the A's pitchers. Currently the A's have the best pitching staff in all of baseball at a mere 2.90 ERA. Fuentes however is just 1-7 (7 losses leads the league), with a 5.10 ERA. However Fuentes is 5th in the AL with 9 saves in 11 opportunities. Proving that he usually gets the job done when given the chance.

Ron Mahay signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks in the spring, but was released in May. At 39, Mahay's career is likely over. But if he wanted to continue and was willing to sign on to a minimum just to play, the Twins might be best to give him a call. While Mahay doesn't excite too many, between 2009 and 2010, Mahay played in 57 games, pitching 43 innings going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 33 K's.

So looking back, now that the Twins sport the majors worst bullpen, with a 5.21 ERA, was it worth the savings? Mind you that the bullpen's effectiveness relied on the assumption that the starters would consistently toss 6 innings or more. At 21 quality starts (6 IP, 3 runs or less), the Twins are last in the American League. What was the contigency plan if the Twins bullpen had to be relied upon more than the norm. Even more so, how valuable are those non-closer roles now that the Twins are scoring runs at a turtle's pace and the starters are barely pitching enough for decisions? These are the questions that should have been asked at the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, the Twins looked at the bullpen as spoke on the wheel, instead of lever that would help move it.

Ok, well that's about enough on the bullpen. They are trying and injuries have led to a less than desirable situation. However, if hindsight was 20/20, I find it hard to believe they would attack 2011 with the same bullpen plan.

Until next time, remember to dust once a week to reduce allergies.

Brock
TCW

Get to know 'em - The Minnesota "Rochester" Twins

A few years ago, the Minnesota Twins had a advertising campaign called "get to know 'em". It was highlighted as an effort to really get to know the players and took a comical view on what life was like away from the ballpark. It was a funny in part because most of the Twins were already well known in the community, i.e. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, etc. The Twins might want to think about reviving that campaign again with the 2011 squad. The difference this time would be that that half of the squad is made up of guys that started in Triple A. The Twins have called up 10 players since they broke camp, some have stayed and some have gone back down. So in order to keep you informed on who's who, I've created a little, get to know 'em for each player so next time you see them on TV or at the ballpark, you can lean over and share your baseball knowledge with everyone else.

Here they are in chronological order.

Who: Luke Hughes
Position: 2nd base
Call up: April 7th
Why: Tsuyoshi Nishioki broke his leg
Red Wings stats: Hughes hadn't even played a game yet.
Twins stats: 16 games, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 12 Strikeouts, .234 Avg

Hughes is the resident Aussie on the team, hailing from Perth, Australia. He is one of 5 Twins that have homered in their first major league at-bat, doing so last year. The first since Andre David in 1984. Hughes is a combination 3B and 2B, but hasn't seen any third base yet. However, in the minors Hughes has played every position except catcher (yes he even pitched for an inning in AA ball).


Who: Alex Burnett
Position: Relief Pitcher
Call up: April 9th
Demoted: April 18th
Called-up: April 28th
Why: Kevin Slowey placed on DL for right shoulder strain
Red Wings stats: 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K's, 7.36 ERA
Twins stats: 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 4 K's, 3.86 ERA

You should know Burnett by now. He spent the majority of the 2010 season with the team, racking up 47 IP while going 2-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Burnett is a mop-up guy at this time in his career. He rarely gets action in tight ball games, and if so, its likely a one hitter-matchup situation. With the uncertainty and inconsistency of the bullpen, Burnett has the chance to stay with the team again in 2011 if he can be moderately effective like he was last year. At age 23, there's no reason to think Burnett can't be one of the best in the bullpen. He was a 12th round draft choice and has already surpassed dozens if not hundreds of players picked before him.


Who: Steve Holm
Position: Catcher
Call up: April 14th
Demoted: May 4th
Why: Joe Mauer placed on DL with bilateral leg weakness
Red Wings stats: 4 games, 2 hits, 2 BB, 0 extra base hits, .250 avg
Twins stats: 6 games, 2 hits, 1 2B, 0 RBI, 4 strikouts, .118 avg

Holm wasn't expected to make much of an impact. If anything, Holm was brought up because of experience and the fact that he's not on the Twins prospect lists to become an everyday player. Therefore he can sit on the bench or back up Butera without having to give the Twins valuable prospect at-bats in the minors. Holm is 31 and played sparingly in 53 games for the San Franciso Giants in 2008 and 2009. He was drafted in the 17th round in 2001 by the Giants and should be given praise for being able to stick around in baseball for 10 years and make more than 1 trip up to the big leagues.


Who: Jim Hoey
Position: Relief Pitcher
Call Up: April 17th
Why: Jeff Manship was demoted to Rochester.
Red Wings stats: 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K's, 1-0, 2.70 ERA
Twins stats: 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K's, 0-0, 5.79 ERA

You may not know much about Jim Hoey, other than he's got a killer fastball. But you should know that Hoey was at one time one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. He earned the Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in 2006 and was in line to be the Orioles new closer. But after less than spectacular call-ups by the O's in 2006 and 2007, Hoey's future came crashing down when he had to undergo arthroscopic shoulder surgery and miss the entire 2008 season. Since then, he's had a long road back. The Twins however, have hope that the old Hoey will emerge and in the offseason they traded JJ Hardy, Brendan Harris, and minor league pitcher Brett Jacobson to the Orioles for him. He's in a similar situation to Alex Burnett, where he's not the set-up or closer, but given the current bullpen situation, he has the ability to really prove his worth and stay up with the team for a long time.


Who: Eric Hacker
Position: Relief Pitcher
Call up: April 18th
Demoted: April 27th
Why: Alex Burnett demoted to Rochester.
Red Wings stats: 13 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K's, 1-0, 0.00 ERA
Twins stats: 5.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 K's, 0-0, 0.00 ERA

This isn't Hacker's first time on the merry-go-round, but it's close. Hacker had what they call a "cup of coffe" with the Pirates in 2009, appearing in just 3 games and 3 innings with a strikeout. In Hacker's 18 innings between the minors and majors, he's done a pretty good job impressing the Twins brass, especially since he has yet to allow an earned run. While the Twins sent him back to Rochester, you can bet that he's on the short list for an injury replacement or even a promotion and it's likely we'll see Hacker again before September.


Who: Rene Tosoni
Position: Outfield
Call-up: April 27th
Why: Delmon Young placed on DL for a strained left oblique
Red Wings stats: 19 games, 20 hits, 6 doubles, 3 HR, 16 RBI, .286 Avg
Twins stats: 7 games, 5 hits, 0 extra base hits, 2 RBI, 4 K's, .208 Avg

While Tosoni has had an impact in a few games, his numbers are no where near what he was doing in Rochester and he's obviously having a tough time adjusting to the talent level. But give Tosoni credit for making it this far, he was a 34th round selection by the Twins in 2004, didn't sign, then was a 36th round selection by the Twins the following year. Tosoni gives the Twins their 2nd Canadien, joining Morneau, as Tosoni was born in Toronto, but like Morneau, grew up in British Columbia.


Who: Anthony Swarzak
Position: Starting Pitcher
Call-up: April 27th
Demoted: April 28th
Why: Eric Hacker demoted; emergency starter needed
Red Wings stats: 25.2 IP, 28 hits, 13 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 20 K's, 1-1, 4.56 ERA
Twins stats: 5.1 IP, 8 hits, 5 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 8.44 ERA

Swarzak was called up for a rain suspended game that had to be played as part of a double header against the Indians. It has been 2 years since Swarzak made his major league debut with the Twins in 2009 and he was left out of any major league call-ups last year. While he had to be excited to get the call, I'm sure it was a little mooted as he knew it was just for 1 game. Regardless, the Twins gave him a chance to impress and he failed miserably. His start lasted 5.1 IP, but he gave up 8 hits and 5 ER, while giving up 2 HR and only striking out 1. At 25, the Twins still think highly of him, for now, and if he does well considering the Twins pitching situation, he's got a good chance to redeem himself again this year.


Who: Ben Revere
Position: Outfield
Call up: May 4th
Why: Jason Repko placed on DL for right quad strain
Red Wings stats: 23 games, 27 hits, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 7 SB, .293 Avg
Twins stats: Yet to play in 2011

Revere is a name that you should have heard by now. He was a 1st round pick in 2007, which means a lot is expected of him. Revere just turned 23 this week and he's got a bright future ahead of him. Known for his speed and ability to get on base, he's not a power hitter and would settle into the 1 or 2 spot in the order eventually. He's basically Denard Span in a different uniform. Revere was called up last year and played in 13 games, but they were for the most part unimpressive, batting just .179 with 5 singles, 2 RBI and no stolen bases. But, I have a feeling those numbers are not indicative of what we'll see from Revere.


Who: Trevor Plouffe
Position: Shortstop
Call up: May 4th
Why: Jim Thome placed on DL with a left oblique strain
Red Wings stats: 22 games, 21 hits, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .282 Avg
Twins stats: Yet to play

It was fitting the Plouffe was called up the same day as Revere. Both players are 1st round draft picks in the 20's (Plouffe 20th, Revere 28th), both players made their major league debut with the Twins last year, and both players hit under .200 during their 2010 stint in the bigs (Plouffe .146 in 41 at-bats). Unlike Revere, however, Plouffe was drafted 3 years earlier in 2004 and has had to wait his turn to get to the majors. By contrast, Glen Perkins was picked just 2 spots behind Plouffe that year at #22 and is in his 6th year playing at least partially with the Twins. With Alexi Casilla's struggles, and Matt Tolbert's inability to grasp the opportunity, a golden ticket has opened up for Plouffe to seize the spot he was drafted for 7 years ago.


Who: Rene Rivera
Position: Catcher
When: May 5th
Why: Steve Holm demoted to Rochester
Red Wings stats: 13 games, 9 hits, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 10 K's, .200 Avg
Twins stats: Yet to play

Rivera's Rochester roommate, Ben Revere, was called up just the day before. As he tweeted good luck to Revere, he didn't realize he would be the recipient of good luck tweets the next day. Rivera also makes the Twins the only team in baseball to carry 2 guys with the first name Rene (I didn't look that up, but the chances of that happening elsewhere are ridiculous). Rivera is no stranger to the major leagues, but it's been awhile since he's stepped onto the big stage. Rivera played with the Mariners from 2004 to 2006, getting first called up before he was even legal to drink at age 20. So it's been a long 5 year wait to get back for Rivera. His call-up is more out of desperation than it is offensive numbers. Rivera's mendoza line batting average just shows how desperate the Twins are to find someone to fill in for Mauer and give Butera a break since Butera's .111 average is not giving Gardy or the Twins any reason to play him full time.

Alright, well I hope this has allowed you to catch up to speed on the Rochester...I mean Minnesota Twins. If history suggests anything, there's likely to be several more names to learn.

Until next time, remember object in mirror are closer than they appear.

Brock
TCW

p.s. Special nod to Francisco Liriano for his no-hitter against the White Sox this week. The 5th in Twins Franchise history and first since Eric Milton in 1999!

Why You Should Still Get Up Tomorrow Morning

Look, Minnesotans, I feel you. I am one, so I know. It's tough right now. The weather is 20 degrees below normal, the golf courses are empty, the winter clothes are still not put away, the Twins are the worst team in baseball, the Vikings picked a mid 2nd round QB with the 12th pick, the Timberwolves finished dead last in the NBA, the Wild missed the playoffs and folded under pressure, and the Gophers big 3 sports (football, basketball, and hockey) collectively, were a major disappointment.

All that said, you should still get up and go to work, school, dance, fishing, hunting, or whatever it is you do on a Monday. Why? Because maybe it's not THAT bad. There has been a lot of negative lately, but that loop needs to change, even if we don't see it in the newspaper.

Let's work backwards. Yeah the Gophers big 3 revenue sports were dreadful, but the Gophers Football team beat Iowa at the end of last year. Iowa had 6 players drafted in last week's NFL draft. The Gophers had none, and while you can get down on the team for the latter, you can point out that the team finished with heart. And with a new coach and new QB, how can you not be at least a little optimistic about the Gophers. Plus they have beautiful TCF Bank Stadium, a fan treat. I'm not a huge hockey mind, but the fellas at the Daily Gopher do a great job and have provided some reason for optimism next year. Read about it here. The basketball team had an epic collapse after a brilliant start. The Gophers will lose most of the starting line-up, but the one man they needed to come back, Trevor Mbakwe recently stated he'll be back for his senior season. Mbakwe has NBA talent, no doubt, but you gotta think he doesn't want to end his collegiate career that way. And with Tubby Smith still able to reel in high-grade talent, don't count out the Gophers b-ball team as competitive again next year.

The Wild, in the self proclaimed, "state of hockey" left Minnesotans out of the playoffs for the 3rd straight year. Because of this, the Wild fired head coach Todd Richards. Like the Vikings and Gophers Football, Wild fans can find optimism in a new coach and a fresh start. They recently sent 7 players to the World Championships, so this team definitely has a lot of talent. Also, like Gophers football, the Wild has one of the best home arenas in the nation. The Excel is truly a treasure.

Ah the Timberwolves. I know what you're thinking, this is going to be tough. I could take the easy way out and highlight Kevin Love's amazing season and Most Improved Player Award. Yes, that is remarkable. But then again, the Timberwolves had more rebounds then they should have because they missed A LOT of shots. The reason for optimism lies in the Timberwolves having the best shot at the #1 overrall pick. While this has never happened, you can't deny the fact that this is the best chance they'll have. While there's no LeBron James or Kobe Bryant in this draft, that's unrealistic to think about anyways. The Wolves can support their Love-Beasley combo with playmakers like Derrick Williams, Kemba Walker, and Kyrie Irving. Look at the Memphis Grizzlies, they were just like the 2007-2011 Timberwolves not too long ago. How did they go from laughing stock to beating the Spurs in round 1 this year? Part of the reason is they stockpiled first round picks from years of futility. Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol, and Rudy Gay. All top 10 picks, a pretty nucleus there.

The Vikings have now wiped themselves clean of the Brett Favre experiment. An endeavour that we all know should have ended with only 1 year. The Vikes finished 6-10 and tied for last in the NFC North. Because a ton of other teams were just as bad, the Vikings only got the 12th pick for their miserable season. With that 12th pick they got a QB ranked around 45th overrall in a lot of expert minds. Kevin Seifert, a blogger for ESPN, and former beat writer for the Vikings wrote a great article the other day on why the Vikings had no choice but to choose Ponder because, among other things, he was the best quarterback available. He argues that they only had one choice. Check it out here. The last time the Vikings put the faith of a 1st round QB to lead the team to glory, was 1999 when they chose Daunte Culpepper at #11. A pick that despite the decline in later years, actually proved pretty worthwile in the end.

The Twins are the worst team in Major League Baseball. Give that a moment to sink in. You can slap or pinch yourself all you want, but the fact is its May 1st, and the only team in baseball that has yet to reach double digits in wins is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have the 9th highest payroll, a future hall of famer (Thome), 2 MVPs (Mauer & Morneau), two 15 game winners (Pavano & Baker), and 2 closers in the top 105 of all time (Nathan & Capps). Yet with all this talent, the team has collectively failed. There are the obvious injury reasons. The DL has been visited by Mauer, Nishioka, Young, and Slowey. Nathan & Morneau have played but are still coming back from devastating injuries. But when the team is healthy, there isn't much left for excuses. Here's why you shouldn't give up on this team yet. Jason Kubel. If All-stars were picked today, Kubel would be the lone Twins rep. He's batting .351 with 9 doubles, 2 home runs, 10 RBI and a .511 SLG %. Yeah that doesn't set the world on fire, but last year he hit .249 and had 116 strikeouts. This could be a bounce back career year for #16. Jim Thome. Ok if all else fails and this turns out to be a "rebuilding year" (I just can't believe I wrote that). Then we still have Thome's pursuit of history to join the 600 home run club. Only 7 players have done it, it's about as elite as it gets. If you catch yourself at the game when he cracks #600, consider it one of the highlights of your life. Target Field. C'mon Twins fans and Minnesotans, do you understand how lucky we are to have Target Field? Going from the Metrodome to Target Field is like replacing your 13" black & white TV with a 62" 3D/HD TV. The Twins have always had great fan support, consider Target Field as the gift that'll keep on giving for generations to come. The teams will change, some will win and some will lose, but Target Field is here to stay and we are so lucky to have it. Finally, the Twins may be 9-18, but that doesn't mean the season is over. The 1914 Boston Braves were 9-22 to start the season. How did they end up? They won the World Series. It can happen, keep the faith.

Oh and as for the weather, I'll take rain and cold over earthquakes, tsunamis, tornadoes, and hurricanes ANY day. Maybe we are more lucky than you thought.

Until next time, remember you've got 1 week 'till Mother's Day.
Brock
TCW