Monday, January 24, 2011

Fifteen & Counting - Breaking down College BB's 15 win teams

It's January 24th and the College Basketball season is over halfway done. I've analyzed a lot of College Football on here, but in all honesty, I like college basketball just as much, and there is no better postseason tournament in all of sports than the NCAA Tourney. After watching the Gophers beat Michigan, I realized Tubby's team has already gotten to 15 wins with 11 games left in the regular season, and then 1 to 4 more in the Big Ten Tourney. This could be a great season for the Maroon & Gold and it begs the question, how do they stand up against the rest of the nation at this point in the season. I checked in the standings and found that 42 teams have at least 15 wins right now. The Courtesy Wave breaks down the 42 teams into categories of contenders, pretenders, and other various random categories for your benefit.

Signature wins are against teams that were ranked at the time or are currently ranked or have at least 15 plus wins. All signature wins reflect rankings at the time of play, not current. All rankings reflect the Coaches Poll.
*at neutral location

UNDEFEATED(the Elitists)

There are only 2 teams left out of the 346 with flawless records. One of them isn't a surprise, the other, without a doubt, is.

#1 OHIO STATE 20-0
Signature Wins: at #10 Florida, #21 Minnesota, #22 Illinois
The Scoop: When you're 20-0 and ranked #1 in both major polls, it's tough to find something bad to say about the Buckeyes. But here's one major thing to take note, of the top 15 ranked teams, there is only 1 team that has a strength of schedule over 100...the Ohio State Buckeyes at 103. Indiana State is right ahead of OSU at #102.

#4 SAN DIEGO STATE 20-0
Signature wins: at #12 Gonzaga, St. Mary's, UNLV
The Scoop: Again, it's tough to point out fallacies with an unblemished team. The Aztecs have beaten teams with a balanced effort, but no team goes undefeated without a star, and SDSU has one in Kawhi Leonard. A triple threat, Leonard can score, rebound and pass with the best of them. His 16/10/3 nightly outputs speak for themselves. Come tournament time, you'll be hearing a lot about this 6-7 dynamic sophomore.


RANKED POWER PLAYERS - Final Four Contenders
These teams come from the Power 7 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, MWC, Pac-10, & SEC). These teams are proven winners that contend every year with dominant recruiting classes and in most cases, big time coaches who've been here before.

#2 PITTSBURGH 19-1
Signature Wins: #3 Syracuse, #4 Connecticut, #19 Georgetown, #22 Texas
The Scoop: There is no better rebounding or passing team in the country, literally, the Panthers are #1 in rebounding with 43/game and #1 in assists with 20/game. But its truly a team effort here as they don't have a single player that averages 9 or more rebounds or 6 or more assists a game. Depth. That's the key to winning championships, 1 player rarely wins championships by themselves, look at Florida from a couple years ago, they're depth was so good they had bench players drafted in the NBA. Look out for Pitt, a serious contender, who's only blemish is a loss against then ranked Tennessee (before the Vols exploded).

#3 DUKE 18-1
Signature wins: #4 Kansas State, #6 Michigan State
The Scoop: Everyone's favorite team to hate. The Blue Devils are the New York Yankees of college basketball, you're either with them or against them and there's no in between. Like 'em or not, they have a sick 1-2 combo in Nolan Smith (20.1 ppg) & Kyle Singler (18.1 ppg). Their lone loss came against Florida State, who at the time was unranked, but has since proved to be a formidable opponent and has made the loss not as significant as before, especially since it was on the road at FSU.

#5 CONNECTICUT 16-2
Signature Wins: #2 Michigan State*, #7 Villanova, #9 Kentucky*, at #12 Texas
The Scoop: Unlike the Villanova and Pitt, UConn has that all-pro player in Kemba Walker, who averages 25 ppg, which is 2nd only to Jimmer Fredette from BYU. How to beat UConn? Take Walker out of his game and UConn's options get limited quickly. Their are solid players around Walker, he's just so far above the field, its hard to compare. Their 2 losses came against ranked teams, so UConn should definitely be feared.

#6 KANSAS 18-1
Signature wins: #14 Memphis, Arizona
The Scoop: Kansas was undefeated up until this weekend, when Texas came into Lawrence and did what the 69 previous teams couldn't do, beat Kansas. The Jayhawks long home winning streak came to an end to a very good Texas team. I'm not sure what happened at the half, but with Kansas up 12, they completely disappeared in the 2nd half, getting outscored 51-28. But since this is their only loss, its quite acceptable in an otherwise stellar season.

#7 VILLANOVA 17-2
Signature Wins: at #3 Syracuse, #17 Louisville, #25 Cincinatti
The Scoop: A lot like their Big East rival Pittsburgh, these Wildcats showcase depth in overpowering their opponents. With 3 capable scorers (Fisher, Stokes, & Wayns) and 2 powerful low post players (Yarou & Pena), the Wildcats keep defenses on edge with the ability to spread the ball around.


#8 TEXAS 16-3
Signature Wins: at #2 Kansas, #10 Texas A&m, at #12 Michigan State, #16 Illinois
The Scoop: Move over Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers, there's another J. Hamilton in Texas that's gathering the headlines. Jordan Hamilton is turning in a nice sophomore year with his 20 ppg and 7 rpg averages. He and his Longhorn teammates have already churned out 4 wins against teams currently in the top 25, tied for best in the country.

#9 BYU 19-1
Signature Wins: Utah State, St. Mary's, Arizona, at UNLV
The Scoop: See UConn. This team lives and dies off Jimmer Fredette, who leads the nation with 26.7 ppg, more than double the next best BYU scorer. You'll notice BYU doesn't own a signature win against a ranked team. That could all change come January 26th, when one of the best matchups of the year takes place in Provo vs #6 and undefeated San Diego State. Fredette might have to do what he did in 2 of the last 3 games, drop 40 plus on an opponent. This kid is remarkable, tune in just to watch one of the best pure shooters of this generation.

#10 SYRACUSE 18-2
Signature wins: Northern Iowa, #8 Michigan State, #15 Notre Dame, Cincinatti
The Scoop: It's Syracuse, so no one should be surprised that this Big East powerhouse is back again in the national title consideration. They were frontrunners until this past weekend when they faced two top 10 teams and lost both (at #4 Pitt, vs #7 Villanova, making everyone question the legitimacy of their early lofty ranking. There's no question on the legitimacy of Senior forward Rick Jackson, a rebounding machine, Jackson gives the Orange 13 & 12 every night.

RANKED POWER PLAYERS - Sweet 16 contenders

#11 TEXAS A&M 17-2
Signature Wins: #12 Missouri, #20 Temple, #22 Washington, #24 Kansas State
The Scoop: The number 3. That's how many road games the Aggies have had. Their record surely has some very impressive wins, but none of those came on the road. They do possess a road victory against Oklahoma, but the other one came against Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and they lost their first big test on the road against #11 Texas. They better get comfortable on the plane and bus rides because they finish with 6 of their last 11 games on the road.

#12 PURDUE 17-3
Signature Wins: #18 Michigan State
The Scoop: The loss of Robbie Hummel was not only a blow, but a heartbreaking story for a guy trying to finish out a stellar college career. Purdue was a different team after last year's injury, finishing the year a very average team. This year, they are a again a different team, but determined not to suffer the same fate as last year. Jajuan Johnson & E'twaun Moore are two of the best teammates in the country, combining for 39 ppg. They are in the middle of the biggest test of the season with their current 4 game streak against ranked opponents that started with their win over #18 Michigan State. Next up, on the road against #1 Ohio State. Hold onto your butts!

#13 MISSOURI 17-3
Signature Wins: #21 Illinois*, #24 Kansas State
The Scoop: You better have fresh legs to keep up with this Tigers bunch. With 85 points per game they run and score almost at will. Their 13th ranking won't go up unless they prove they can win on the road against quality teams. Their 138th strength of schedule and lone road win at sub .500 Oregon doesn't win a lot of
points.

#14 NOTRE DAME 16-4
Signature Wins: #9 Georgetown, #9 UCONN, Wisconsin*
The Scoop: Ordinarily being 7th in a conference's standings is nothing to be proud about, but in the Big East, it usually means you're doing pretty well in the best and crowded elite conference. The Fighting Irish haven't put up as good a fight on the road as home, a trait similar in this category. Notre Dame has 0 wins on the road (not including neutral games) and all could be forgotten if they win their next one, at Pitt.

#15 WISCONSIN 15-4
Signature Wins: #13 Minnesota, #16 Illinois,
The Scoop: The Badgers have slowly crept up the rankings, going largely unnoticed, outside of the Big Ten. Jon Leuer & Jordan Taylor have led the assault, combining for 37 ppg. They'll need to continue to produce with a tough schedule to finish out including 2 games apiece versus Ohio State & Purdue.

#16 KENTUCKY 15-4
Signature Wins: #11 Washington*, at #20 Louisville, #23 Notre Dame*
The Scoop: Calipari is known for churning out impressive Freshman, then losing them to the NBA. He doesn't have 1 this year....he has 2. Terrence Jones & Brandon Knight form the best freshmen tandem in the country. Combining for 36 points/game, these kids have brought Kentucky into the fold again for this storied program. A less than dominant SEC should see this team easily surpass 20 wins and gain a top 5 NCAA seed.

#17 WASHINGTON 15-4
Signature Wins: #25 Arizona
The Scoop: The Huskies may be one of the most consistent scoring teams in the country. They average 87 points/game and dish out 18 assists/game too. With a .488 field goal percentage, Washington has topped the century mark 5 times already this season. They better get comfortable on the road as 5 of their next 7 are away from Seattle.

#18 MINNESOTA 15-4
Signature Wins: #8 North Carolina, #8 Purdue
The Scoop: The Golden Gophers got a lot of people in the frozen north worried after their 1-3 start to the Big Ten season and after starter Devoe Joseph said he had enough and left the team for Oregon. The Gophers have since gone 3-0 and own a big victory against a very hot Purdue team. Their 3 conference losses all come on the road against ranked teams, Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan State, so those losses aren't necessarily a big hit against this team. However, they'll need to have wins like the one against Purdue to stake their claim on a top 6 NCAA seed. The Trevor Mbakwe incident could have killed this team and season, but despite coming off the bench, Mbakwe's 13pp and 10 rpg have been a big reason why the Gophers have been in the top 25 this year.

#19 LOUISVILLE 15-4
Signature Wins: #18 Butler, #19 UNLV
The Scoop: Their only victories against ranked teams don't look as good as they did in the first half of the year. Pitino is also 0 for 2 against his former teams, losing to Kentucky and a bad loss to Providence, school's he has led to the final four. Pitino will get his shot at those signature ranked wins though, the Cardinals face 6 ranked teams in the next 8 games.

#23 FLORIDA 15-4
Signature Wins: #6 Kansas State
The Scoop: Another no surprise from reputation that Florida is in the top 25, although they haven't been blazing through the most impressive of competition, they haven't faced a ton of duds either with the 53rd toughest schedule. With 2 games apiece left against top 25 teams Kentucky & Vanderbilt, they'll have some opportunities to add to their resume.

RANKED MID-MAJORS

#24 SAINT MARY'S 17-3
Signature Wins: None
The Scoop: The Gaels are likely still a top 25 team on past reputation, because they don't hold 1 signature victory this year. Their best win came against St. John's at home, and it was close. St. John's is currently 11-7. The WCC is usually dominated by Gonzaga, but the Gaels have crept up on top in the last couple years. This is a down year for the WCC by recent standards and its quite possible that only 1 team will make the tournament. With 2 games apiece left against Gonzaga and 14-6 Portland, St. Mary's needs to capitalize on what their week schedule (227th) gives them.

#25 UTAH STATE
Signature Wins: None
The Scoop: Like St. Mary's the Aggies of Utah State can't claim a signature victory that the NCAA selection committee craves. Their biggest win came against Hawaii at home, the Warriors are now 12-8. The entrance into the top 25 is likely from their gaudy record. It's definitely not from their cream puff schedule (296th). The WAC is not good this year, not enough for more than 1 team. The Aggies would be best to win their conference tournament, and if not, just keep padding that record and hope for the best.

NON-RANKED POWER PLAYERS

FLORIDA STATE* 15-5
Signature Wins: #1 Duke, #15 Baylor
*FSU is ranked 22nd in the AP poll.

CINCINNATI 17-3
Best Win: Xavier (13-5)

ARIZONA 16-4
Best Win: at Washington State (14-6)


MAJOR MID-MAJORS - LEGIT DIVISION
The term mid-major is supposed to belong to the teams who's conferences lie in the middle of the pack of 32, however, the water is pretty muddy around the 16th and beyond and therefore the term mid-major should really belong to the 8th to 14th best conferences. In my opinion, they are A-10, Conference USA, Horizon, Missouri Valley, Colonial, West Coast, & WAC. These conferences have more than 1 star team that can compete with the big schools.

UNLV 15-5
Signature Wins: #11 Kansas State*, #25 Wisconsin

RICHMOND 15-5
Signature Wins: #8 Purdue, VCU

MISSOURI STATE 16-4
Signature Wins: at Wichita State, at Northern Iowa

NORTHERN IOWA 15-6
Signature Wins: at Wichita State

VALPARAISO 15-6
Signature Wins: Cleveland State

MID-MAJORS WITH A LOT TO PROVE
VCU 15-5
Best Win: at Old Dominion (14-5)

DAYTON 15-5
Best Win: George Mason (14-5)

JAMES MADISON 15-5
Best Win: Bucknell (14-7)

MEMPHIS 15-4
Best Win: at UAB (13-5)

CLEVELAND STATE 18-3
Best Win: vs Iona (13-7)

WICHITA STATE 16-4
Best Win: at Creighton (13-8)

UTEP 16-4
Best Win: at Tulane (12-6)

LOW MAJOR LOW CHANCES
These teams lie in conferences where traditionally only 1 team gets into the NCAA tournament by way of the automatic conference champion. However, these teams have demonstrated that they can beat the mid-majors and compete with teams from the Power 7 conferences. These teams have decided to pick on the weaklings of college basketball and in many cases have multiple wins against non-division 1 teams.

COASTAL CAROLINA 18-2
Best Win: at Liberty (14-7)

HAMPTON 15-4
Best Win: Liberty (14-7)

MONTANA 15-5
Best Win: at UCLA (13-6)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 15-6
Best Win: at Hofstra (13-6)

FAIRFIELD 15-4
Best Win: at Rider (13-7)

NORTH TEXAS 16-4
Best Win: at LSU (10-9)

That's it for now, my fingers need a break. We'll see how these teams finish the season. Some have a lot to prove, some already have impressive resumes. One thing's for sure, none of these teams are guaranteed a trip to the NCAA tournament at this point, 15 wins won't get you in. But these teams have given us a preview of what lies ahead and the possibilities of who we might see come March Madness time.

until next time, keep that pivot foot on the ground.

brock from the block
the courtesy wave

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