Twins Playoff Roster Predictions

Twins did it again last night, coming from behind to beat Cleveland 6-4 and watching the White Sox collapse and lose their 7th in a row, securing the AL Central Crown in Minnesota for the 6th time in the last 9 years. That's pretty amazing to have a team that consistent. The season has been a storybook year for the Twins, opening the new stadium and selling out all but 1 game so far. There is energy in the upper Midwest and a lot of momentum for October baseball. Still a lot of baseball left to play, including racing the Yankees and Rays for the best overall record and home field advantage in the first 2 rounds. But the Twins are in the playoffs and some tough decisions will have to be made regarding the roster.

The playoffs only allow for a 25 man roster. It can be altered after each series to allow for injured players. But if an injured player is added, another must be dropped. Here are the CW's prediction for the Twins playoff roster. More previews regarding the postseason will come in October in my Playoff Preview post.

First, the STARTERS:

EDITORS NOTE: According to ESPN, Liriano will start game 1, Pavano 2, Duensing 3, Blackburn 4. Almost got it!

Starting Pitcher 1 - Carl Pavano
Leads the team in Wins (17, 3rd in AL), Games Started (30, 12th in AL) IP (210, 5th in AL), Complete Games (7, Leads AL), Shutouts (2, Leads AL) and facial hair (leads the world). The guy has been fantastic with a capital Carl.

Starting Pitcher 2 - Francisco Liriano
Leads the team in Strikeouts (191, 5th in AL) and ERA (3.44, 11th in AL). Liriano is 8-1, with a 2.84 ERA since the All-Star break and has only allowed 5 homeruns all year. Is the Twins potential lights out pitcher with dominating stuff.



Starting Pitcher 3 - Brian Duensing
10-2 with a 2.48 ERA as a starter after pitching in the bullpen during the 1st half. The best non-trade move of the year, Duensing was stellar last year after his move to the starting rotation and the same continues this year. He locked up the 3rd spot almost immediately after joining the rotation.

Starting Pitcher 4 - Nick Blackburn
Demoted in July after going 7-7 with a 6.66 ERA. Since coming back from the minors in August, Blackburn has gone 2-3 but has an impressive 2.12 ERA.

Catcher - Joe Mauer
Last year's MVP has seen his power drop. But the average is still there, at a 2nd best AL mark of .331, also leads the team in hits (165, 13th in AL) and doubles (42, 5th in AL). And he's just a really likable guy.

First Base - Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer has filled in nicely at first in the stead of Justin Morneau's concussion injury that has kept him out of the 2nd half. His power numbers have dipped from last year, but still leads the team in runs (91). A career .270 batting average, at .272, the Twins are getting about what they expected from Michael, including being the only Twin to play in every game so far this season.

2nd Base - Orlando Hudson
An all-star in '07 & '09, O-Dog has slipped this year. Some of it can be blamed on injuries, the rest just getting older and some unfortunate slumps. Regardless, he finds a way to get on base and is a gold glove caliber 2nd basemen with a .987 fielding percentage this year.

Shortstop - J.J. Hardy
Like Hudson, was an all-star in 2007 trying to find his swing again with the Twins this year. Also like Hudson, had multiple stints on the DL that kept an inconsistent hitter from really gaining momentum....until now. In September, Hardy has busted out of his season long mediocrity, sporting a .345 batting average with 12 RBI to up his season average to .274, 9 points above his career average.

Third Base - Danny Valencia
If it weren't for the fact that Valencia wasn't called up until June 3rd, he'd be in serious discussion for the AL Rookie of the Year. He has been everything the Twins wanted in him and more. On the season, Valencia is hitting .337, leading the team. He's actually getting hotter down the stretch, batting .373 with 3 homers and 12 RBI in September.

Left Field - Delmon Young
Has to be in the consideration for team MVP, which is flat out amazing after his paltry start and underachieving career up to this year. Delmon is the team leader in RBI's (105) and Doubles (42 along with Mauer), holding the 5th spot in the AL in each category. All from a guy that usually bats 5th or 6th in the lineup. His .299 average and 18 homeruns haven't hurt either. He has slipped slightly in the last 2 months, but his overall body of work is more than solid.

Center Field - Denard Span
After an impressive first full season last year in the majors, Denard has regressed from a hitting standpoint, his .267 average is well below expected output, however he still leads the team in At-Bats and has posted career highs in doubles (23), triples (10, 2nd in AL), and stolen bases (23, 15th in AL).

DH - Jim Thome
I don't know where to start with this guy, I think you can sum his season up in 1 word. Incredible. Despite the fact that he's the 8th most prolific home run hitter of all time, no one predicted he could contribute this much at this late age without even being a full time starter for most of the season. His 25 home runs lead the Twins and are good for 14th in the AL. The amazing thing is he's done this in 271 at-bats. By comparison, Alex Rodriguez, who sits at 7th on the all time list also has 25 home runs this year....in 480 at-bats. If Thome had enough at-bats he would lead the league in slugging percentage at .631. His biggest impact could come by just being in the lineup and having the fear of god put into every opposing pitcher.

BULLPEN
Right Handers - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch
Guerrier and Crain are the 2 most experienced relievers in the Bullpen, logging the 4th (69) and 5th (68) most games, respectively, in the AL this season, and each pitching exactly 65 innings. On the season, Guerrier and Crain are holding ERA's of 3.46 & 2.49. In a tale of 2 half's for these 2 pitchers, Guerrier had a 1.74 ERA the first 3 months, and Crain has had a staggering 0.82 ERA over the last 3 months.

Rauch was the Twins closer until August and did an admiral job saving 21 games. As the right handed set-up man, he's continued to impress and holds a very solid 3.20 ERA.

Left Handers - Kevin Slowey, Jose Mijares, Brian Fuentes
Suprised to see Slowey here? Maybe, but he's one of 2 odd men out in a 4 man playoff rotation. He actually has pitched pretty well this year and has a nice 13-6 record and decent 4.16 ERA, including going 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA the last 2 months. However, Blackburn has been on fire and has the postseason experience edge over Slowey. Who will step up and be the next in line if anything happens to the starters.

Mijares gets the nod for the default spot of left non-set up reliever role. Every team has one and Mijares, who's only pitched 28 innings this year is the guy for this role. A 3.21 ERA on the season is good, but his 6.59 ERA the last 2 months is cause for concern. Don't expect Mijares to pitch a full inning in the postseason. Spot only for the big chunk.

Fuentes came over to the Twins late in the season after a waiver wire trade in late August from the LA Angels. Fuentes is a career closer and has been asked to fill in as the left hand set up man. He's only pitched 4.1 innings for the Twins, but has yet to give up a run. He's one of 3 guys in the bullpen with 20 plus saves this year.

Closer - Matt Capps
The all-star closer from Washington was traded to the Twins just before the deadline in late July. In 24 games with the Twins he has 15 saves and a 2.25 ERA. Questioned early on in the trade by allowing runners on before closing out the game, he undeniably capps off (pardon the pun) and impressive bullpen that has very few weaknesses.

BENCH
Backup Catcher - Drew Butera
Butera gets the nod over Jose Morales. Drew has been with the team the entire year and has been the personal catcher for ace Carl Pavano. If Morales would have shown more promise this fall, maybe the nod would have swung that way. But the main point is this position will hopefully be rarely used as the team wants Mauer to have every at-bat as possible and putting Mauer in the DH would leave out Thome and the Twins don't want that hot bat out of the lineup.

Back-up 1st Base/DH - Justin Morneau
It's hard to imagine having Morneau on a roster and NOT have him starting, but the reality is he's likely not to even play, let alone make the roster. If he is re instituted into the line-up, the best place for him would be to come off the bench and/or maybe start a game or two. Having not played since July 2nd, its hard to expect that he'll be sharp and ready to pick up where he left off, which at the time was an MVP like season. The Twins can't afford to DH him much either, that takes their best power hitter, Thome out of the lineup. Morneau's roster spot also means someone with relative regular playing time must be cut off the post-season roster.

Back-up 2nd Base - Alexi Casilla
Tough call to make here. I have to go with Alexi Casilla. Although Tolbert has gotten the nod in September more, Casilla's numbers are slightly better and his .265 average overcomes Tolbert's .235. However this decision weighs heavily on if Justin Morneau makes the roster or not. If not, I'd say both Casilla and Tolbert are on.

Back-up Shortstop & 3rd Base - Nick Punto
Punto is the quintessential utility player and after trying his luck in a starting role earlier this year, he has found his rightful place again as the jack of all positions for the Twins. His .249 average is just a tick above his career (.248) and his stats are meager as well. Punto's real value lies in his defense. A career .980 field percentage and game saving plays are often forgotten in the statistics column. Punto is a real asset when utilized the right way.

Backup Outfielder - Jason Repko
Called up in the middle of the season, Repko, who had spent a few years muddling with the Dodgers, has been a nice addition to the Twins when a regular starter has needed rest or has had an injury. Repko can play all three outfield positions and is a defensive replacement or pinch-hitter runner specialist. His average is nothing to write home about and I almost want to give the nod or roster spot to Tolbert here who also can play outfield...however it seems Gardenhire likes Repko in that 4th outfielder spot. Another toss up.

Notables left off the playoff Roster
Matt Tolbert - Really 50/50 on Tolbert, could go either way. Solid back-up player with multiple position experience. If Morneau is out, Tolbert is in.

Scott Baker - The defacto Ace of a year ago has fallen hard. Has shown very little consistency and is behind Slowey who's behind Blackburn for the final spot in the rotation. This will be a tough, very tough decision to leave a guy making $3 million and was supposed to be a top 3 starter off the playoff roster.

Pat Neshek - The wonder boy from Brooklyn Park with the crazy side arm delivery. 1st year back from Tommy John surgery just wasn't the same pitcher, couldn't find that magic again, spent most of the year in the minors and follows the trend of many pitchers post TJ surgery...a long road back.

Glen Perkins - Has a shot at making the playoff roster due to the fact that he's a lefty and the other lefty in the bullpen is Mijares, who has struggled lately, whereas Perkins has not allowed a run since August in 6 innings pitched. However, Perkins is mostly disliked in the organization despite being a Minnesota native because of his notable grumpiness with the organization's front office.

Jose Morales - The 3rd catcher for the Twins, known to carry 3 catchers often as to play Mauer in the DH role, however there is no room for a 3rd catcher in the playoffs and his bat is just not strong enough to carry over the full season experience of Drew Butera.

Randy Flores - Acquired from a trade with Colorado in late August, Flores was at the time expected to step into that left handed specialist role, that has dogged Mijares and Perkins from time to time. He just hasn't been used much and theres no indication that Flores is the guy. He's only pitched 2 innings and in 3 of his appearances, he failed to record 1 out.

Well there you have it, the Courtesy Wave's 2010 Twins Playoff Roster predictions. Let's see how accurate it really is when playoff rosters are announced in 10 days. Till then, ride the wave and respect your elders.

bsv
the Courtesy Wave